I’ve finally made sense of this whole Tim Tebow thing – it makes sense in that it makes absolutely no sense at all. Make sense?

Up until this past week, it would bother me to hear how most people would explain his improbable weekly victories. Their rationale?

“He just wins.”

I thought those people were morons, brain dead simpletons who couldn’t possibly understand the intricacies of football, merely content to continue eating paste while occasionally spilling a drop on their favorite #15 jersey.

But they’re right. He (and Denver) just wins.

They’re especially right after this most recent Sunday, when Tebow opened the game 3-16 passing for 45 yards and an interception before finishing 21-40 for 236 yards with a touchdown in a 13-10 overtime victory over the Chicago Bears.

We like to be able to explain things, to attach definitions to them - especially in sports. We have an abundance of statistics that we can manipulate to support any statement we make. That’s what makes Tim Tebow so maddening. The numbers say he’s a mediocre quarterback. Hell, 75% of the time the numbers say he’s a terrible quarterback. The eye test does, too.

But the scoreboard doesn’t. Or at least it hasn’t yet. Despite his early struggles, he continues to re-enact his own version of Brandon Roy’s fourth quarter against the Dallas Mavericks in last year’s NBA playoffs, over and over and over.

So does he turn on some magical switch come crunch time? Is John Fox just underutilizing him for most of the game? How do Denver’s receivers get so wide open when the game’s on the line?

I have no answers.

He’s completed just 48.5 percent of his passes, worst in the NFL among quarterbacks who have attempted at least 14 passes per team’s games played. Tebow is averaging 6.52 yards per pass attempt, 27th out of 32 quarterbacks. His 11 touchdown passes are tied with Christian Ponder for 23rd.

Yet he’s 14th in the league in quarterback rating and has only thrown two interceptions, fewest by anyone in the NFL who has attempted a comparable number of passes. And most importantly, he’s 7-1 as a starter this season. Denver now leads the AFC West by a full game at 8-5 with New England, Buffalo and Kansas City left on the schedule.

Tebow is such a polarizing figure that his success would still likely defy explanation even if his on-field performance made any kind of sense. And right or wrong, he's going to receive the lion's share of the credit or blame for Denver's results.

He’s accumulated boatloads of detractors since his collegiate career at Florida due to intense media coverage. It can go a bit overboard at times (I’m looking directly at you, Verne Lundquist and Gary Danielson), but really, isn’t this the kind of athlete we should be glorifying? He always says the right things, never gives up, oozes charisma and finds a way to be successful with apparently lesser abilities than his peers. He's an immensely likeable guy.

In a way, Tebowmania is a lot like Hulkamania.

Think about it. Hulk Hogan is the most popular wrestler who ever lived, a guy who revolutionized the sports entertainment industry. He wanted all his little Hulkamaniacs out there to train, say their prayers and eat their vitamins. Pretty sound advice, really. At one point, he may have also urged them to believe in themselves. He also won just about every championship belt available to him despite being an absolutely terrible wrestler.

Anyway, pretty much every single Hulk Hogan match played out the exact same way: Hogan struggles, appears to be down for the count after being wrapped up in a move like a sleeper hold, magically catches a second wind, hulks up and closes with a flourish, delivering three punches, the big boot and the leg drop to secure the victory.

Sound familiar? That’s pretty much every Denver win during this current hot streak.

Hogan had his share of critics as well, and his defeat at the hands of The Undertaker at the 1991 Survivor Series was met with a sizeable pop from the crowd. People got tired of him, and contrarian views finally broke through the lovefest. It's been that way for Tebow since the start, with very few opinions straddling the fence.

Tebow doesn’t have many villains left on the schedule (minus Tom Brady, obviously, though he is probably more Miss Elizabeth than Randy Savage), so don’t expect any kind of fan unification just yet. Those who hate Tim Tebow will continue to do so, as will those who love him. Neither will have a particularly good reason for it, and that’s okay. Maybe it’s just not supposed to make sense. I mean, I just had to compare it to professional wrestling.

Tim Tebow and the Denver Broncos will likely make the playoffs this year. Potential postseason opponents like the Pittsburgh Steelers and Baltimore Ravens are vastly superior to the teams Denver has beaten, but why stop defying the odds now?

When the time comes, rather than relying on trends and statistics to make sense of the match-ups, I’ll look back at past Survivor Series or Royal Rumble performances by Hulk Hogan instead.

Makes sense to me. I’m now content to just sit back and enjoy the show.

Sometimes, it feels awesome to be wrong. As the 12 of you who occasionally read this blog may remember, I predicted a 14 point Clemson win over South Carolina in last week's Battle for the Palmetto State. While I was correct in stating that Connor Shaw's scrambling ability would be key for the Gamecocks, I was incorrect in predicting that the offense would commit crippling turnovers. Instead, for the first time all season, South Carolina played a turnover-free game. Eat it, Clemson.

Beyond that, the Thanksgiving weekend slate of games was largely uneventful. Thursday night's Texas/Texas A&M game was a classic, a fitting end to the yearly rivalry. LSU predictably crushed Arkansas in our latest Game of the Century. Houston pulled away from Tulsa in the second half to lock up a Conference USA championship berth. The Iron Bowl and Civil War were laughers. The best game of the day absolutely shouldn't have been, as Michigan needed a late interception to hold off the worst Ohio State team in at least a decade. USC crushed UCLA, 50-0, to win the Pac-12 South Division by two full games. But the Bruins will head to Eugene for the conference championship game, thanks to violations committed during the Pete Carroll Era. Good call, NCAA. Stanford rolled out some awesome unis (pictured above) for its game with Notre Dame, Maryland blew a 27 point lead in the second half to NC State, Virginia Tech (ACC Coastal) and Wisconsin (Big Ten Leaders) clinched division championships, and Kentucky beat Tennessee for the first time since 1984.

After all of that, we're now looking at a Championship Weekend that many are saying means very little. Of course, they're focusing solely on the BCS Championship Game, which appears to be a guaranteed rematch between LSU and Alabama, but there's still plenty to play for this weekend. Here's a brief breakdown of the games featuring Top 25 teams, as well as my rankings.

1. LSU (-13) vs. 16. Georgia, Saturday 4:00 PM in Atlanta, GA.
People seem convinced that LSU will play for the national championship whether it beats Georgia in Atlanta or not on Saturday, so I guess the Tigers don't have much to play for. Do they rest starters for next month's title tilt? Les Miles has been known to take risks, but that's one I don't think he'll try. LSU has dominated everyone not named Alabama this year, and it's hard for me to think the Tigers won't win fairly easily against Georgia. The Bulldogs are hot, having won 10 straight games, but I don't think there's any way they can get the running game working against LSU. Aaron Murray and his receivers are good, but not good enough to beat the nation's 2nd ranked defense without any help.
Pick: LSU 34, Georgia 17

2. Alabama BYE

3. Oklahoma State (-3.5) vs. 12. Oklahoma, Saturday 8:00 PM.
Bedlam doesn't mean quite as much as it did a few weeks ago, but it's hard to call this game a disappointment when the combined record of the teams playing is 19-3. Both teams have slipped up against subpar opponents, turning this game from a national championship semifinal to possibly just the Big XII championship game. Oklahoma won a thriller in Stillwater last year, but I think the Sooners might be a little too banged up to win this one while Oklahoma State is coming off a bye week. For me, this one comes down to similar strengths versus similar weaknesses. Both teams are among the nation's best in the passing game and both have difficulty defending it. If this game turns into a shootout, and it's hard to imagine that it won't, I have to side with the team that does a better job of outscoring the opposition.
Pick: Oklahoma State 45, Oklahoma 41

4. Virginia Tech (-7.5) vs. 21. Clemson, Saturday 8:00 PM in Charlotte, NC.
These two teams couldn't possibly be any more different than when they hooked up in Blacksburg back on October 1st, a 23-3 Clemson win. Since then, Virginia Tech quarterback Logan Thomas has scored 22 total touchdowns against just 2 interceptions. David Wilson ran for 127 yards against Clemson earlier in the year, and he (as well as Thomas) must be salivating over facing a Tigers defense that just allowed 210 rushing yards to South Carolina. The Tigers need a win in the worst way, but FV's own ACC Humiliation Index dictates that Virginia Tech must win the ACC only to get destroyed by some at-large team in the BCS.
Pick: Virginia Tech 27, Clemson 17

5. Stanford BYE

6. Houston (-13.5) vs. Southern Miss, Saturday 12:00 PM.
Well, I guess I was wrong when I thought I was done with Southern Miss for the year. The Golden Eagles had a brief stay in my Top 25 before losing to UAB, which I assumed meant I wouldn't have to write about them again. I forgot about the Conference USA championship game. This game is being played at Houston, where the Cougars are winning by just over 36 points per game. Tulsa was supposed to be Houston's toughest test of the season, but ended up losing by 32 last week. This would be a huge, huge win for Larry Fedora and Southern Miss, but I just don't see it happening.
Pick: Houston 56, Southern Miss 24

7. Boise State (-48.5) vs. New Mexico, Saturday 6:00 PM.
I'd be lying if I said that I cared at all about this game. I predicted before the season started that Boise State would play for the national championship thanks to a bunch of upsets throughout the nation. The latter happened, but the Broncos didn't live up to their end of the deal by losing to TCU. Bus. New Mexico is beyond horrible. 48.5 is an awful lot of line to cover, but the Lobos have lost by 40 or more five times this season.
Pick: Boise State 54, New Mexico 10

8. Arkansas BYE

9. Oregon (-31.5) vs. UCLA, Friday 8:00 PM.
Thanks to the NCAA trying to keep its pimp hand strong, this is our Pac-12 championship game. USC, the rightful Pac-12 South representative, will instead be stuck watching the game at home. UCLA has fired Rick Neuheisel but he will coach on Saturday, but I don't think the outcome would be different whether he were on the sideline or not. Oregon is a vastly better football team, and it will show. It might not be 50-0 like UCLA's loss to USC last week, but this one will never be in doubt.
Pick: Oregon 45, UCLA 10

10. USC BYE

11. Michigan State (+9.5) vs. 13. Wisconsin, Saturday 8:15 PM in Indianapolis, IN.
The Big Ten championship game is a rematch of one of college football's best games this year. Michigan State won on a last second Hail Mary that was initially ruled to be down near the goal line before a replay review overturned the call and gave the Spartans the win. The loss knocked Wisconsin out of the national championship picture (a loss to Ohio State the following week added insult to injury), so while a Badgers win on Saturday might not totally erase what happened in late October, it would be a pretty solid measure of revenge. Both teams are riding four game winning streaks, but Wisconsin's victories have been far more comfortable. Michigan State's normally stout defense has been giving up more points than usual lately, and that could be cause for concern against the Badgers, who average just under 45 points per game. I'm siding with Wisconsin based on the roll that it's on right now, but that same logic would have favored the Badgers in the previous meeting. We'll see.
Pick: Wisconsin 37, Michigan State 31

14. Kansas State (-11) vs. Iowa State, Saturday 12:30 PM.
Do I have to say it again? Kansas State is the most disrespected college football team in Vegas. Iowa State's upset win over Oklahoma State is the only notable victory on the Cyclones' schedule, with their five losses coming by 23.4 points per game. Iowa State's defense isn't great against the pass or the run, so expect Kansas State quarterback Collin Klein to have yet another fantastic game.
Pick: Kansas State 37, Iowa State 20

15. South Carolina BYE

17. Michigan BYE

18. TCU (-39) vs. UNLV, Saturday 2:30 PM.
I said earlier that New Mexico is beyond horrible. UNLV lost to New Mexico.
Pick: TCU 50, UNLV 6

19. Baylor (-2) vs. 24. Texas, Saturday 3:30 PM.
This game depends entirely on the health of Baylor quarterback Robert Griffin III. He had his helmet taken away by Baylor medical staff prior to the second half of last week's win over Texas Tech. Griffin took an elbow to the head while sliding, then spent a play on the sideline before re-entering and scoring from three yards out. Should he be good to go, I like Baylor. Texas is just too banged up, especially at the running back position, which is especially costly given Baylor's difficulty stopping the run. However, the Longhorns have the Big XII's best defense and have held every team on their schedule (minus Oklahoma) below their season scoring average. We'll find out more about Griffin's status as the game approaches, but I'll assume he's fine.
Pick: Baylor 30, Texas 27

20. Nebraska BYE

22. Penn State BYE

23. West Virginia (-1) @ South Florida, Thursday 8:00 PM.
I thought before the season started that this game may decide the Big East. It still might, but South Florida won't be in the title picture regardless of the outcome. West Virginia came back from a double digit deficit to beat Pitt in the Backyard Brawl last week to push its conference record to 4-2, tied with Cincinnati and a half game behind Louisville. Your guess is as good as mine about who wins the conference, but Thursday night's game should be a little easier to figure out. South Florida just let Louisville's Teddy Bridgewater pass for 241 yards and three touchdowns a week ago, and it's not much of a stretch to assume West Virginia's Geno Smith will do better. B.J. Daniels and the Bulls will make a game of it, but will ultimately fall short.
Pick: West Virginia 28, South Florida 24

25. Florida State BYE

Here are a few BCS basics for the fans who may not be aware.
-The top 2 ranked teams in the BCS standings will meet for the National Championship in New Orleans, Louisiana.
-The winners of the Big Ten and Pac Twelve will meet in the Rose Bowl, barring neither is ranked in the top 2 and playing for the NC.
-The SEC champion will play in the Sugar Bowl, barring the team is not ranked in the top 2 and playing for the NC.
-The Big XII champion will play in the Fiesta Bowl, barring the team is not ranked in the top 2 and playing for the NC.
-The ACC champion will play in the Orange Bowl, barring the team is not ranked in the top 2 and playing for the NC.
-The BCS bowl losing the #1 ranked team in the BCS standings will get the first at-large selection while the BCS bowl losing the #2 ranked team in the BCS standings will get the second at-large selection. Please note that the bowl losing the #1 ranked team is NOT allowed to select an at-large from the same conference as the #2 ranked team per BCS selection rules. For example, in this past seasons BCS standings, the Sugar Bowl would not be allowed to select Stanford to replace Auburn because Stanford is in the same conference as the #2 ranked team.
-The remaining selection order for the 2012 BCS games is; Fiesta, Sugar, and Orange.


The Rose Bowl
January 2, 2012- Pasadena, California
(11-2) Wisconsin vs Oregon (11-2)
Wisconsin losses: at Michigan State, at Ohio State
Oregon losses: vs LSU, vs USC

-Despite setbacks in East Lansing and Columbus, Wisconsin is still the class of the conference and will run the table and win the first ever Big Ten Championship Game in Indianapolis.
-A put up or shut up game awaits Oregon in Pasadena. Dominating regular seasons have led to losses to Ohio State and Auburn the past two seasons and the Ducks should be heavily favored in this one.

Prediction: Oregon 52, Wisconsin 17


The Sugar Bowl
January 3, 2012- New Orleans, Louisiana
(10-2) Michigan vs Houston (12-0)
Michigan losses: at Michigan State, at Iowa

-With two SEC teams in the National Title Game, The Sugar Bowl gets first stab at an at-large and there isn't an option more attractive than a resurgent Michigan coming off a 10 win season.
-The most dynamic passing attack in the country led by an NCAA record holding QB heading to New Orleans to face an SEC team? Case Keenum is hoping for a better result than Colt Brennan.

Prediction: Michigan 41, Houston 34


The Orange Bowl
January 4, 2012- Miami, Florida
(12-1) Virginia Tech vs West Virginia (9-3)
Virginia Tech loss: vs Clemson
West Virginia losses: vs LSU, at Syracuse, vs Louisville

-Is Clemson finally going to win the ACC? In a collapse of epic proportions that only Clemson could pull off, they'll finish the season off with 3 straight losses and lose to Virginia Tech in the ACCCG.
-West Virginia's offense has been potent at times but really off at others. The Big East is a mess like last year and anyone could emerge.

Prediction: West Virginia 20, Virginia Tech 17


The Fiesta Bowl
January 5, 2012- Glendale, Arizona
(10-2) Oklahoma vs Stanford (11-1)
Oklahoma losses: vs Texas Tech, at Baylor
Stanford loss: vs Oregon

-Despite laying two eggs this season, Oklahoma is a far better team up and down compared to Oklahoma State. OU wins the Big XII again and books another trip to Glendale.
-The Fiesta Bowl gets to pick an at-large before the Sugar Bowl and Orange Bowl. Hmm, Stanford, Houston, or West Virginia. Fairly obvious choice here is to roll with Andrew Luck and the Cardinal.

Prediction: Stanford 38, Oklahoma 34


BCS National Championship Game
January 9, 2012- New Orleans, Louisiana
(13-0) LSU vs Alabama (11-1)
Alabama loss: vs LSU

-I cannot give Les Miles enough credit for outcoaching the unflappable Nick Saban. There should be no doubt left as to who the best HC in the country is and he's got a pretty talent rich team too.
-Nick Saban is still unflappable. Alabama outplayed LSU in Tuscaloosa and did everything they could to lose that game. Game of the Century Part II will be epic in New Orleans

Prediction: Alabama 13, LSU 6



Others in the BCS picture:
10-2 Oklahoma State
11-1 Boise State

01. Indianapolis
QB Andrew Luck, Stanford
-14 years after selecting Peyton Manning 1st overall, the Colts pick first again and get their hands on the best QB prospect since Manning. Luck is the real deal folks.

02. Carolina
CB Morris Claiborne, Louisiana State
-As impressive as Cam Newton and the offense has been, this is a horrific defense. Claiborne might be a better cover corner than former teammate Patrick Peterson.

03. St. Louis
OT Matt Kalil, Southern Cal
-Jason Smith has been plagued by injuries and looks like a huge bust. The Rams need a top flight tackle to protect Bradford. Kalil leads a strong class at tackle.

04. Washington
QB Matt Barkley, Southern Cal
-Andrew Luck has been receiving all the hype but I believe Barkley isn't too far behind. He has an incredible arm and possesses leadership qualities needed in a QB.

05. Jacksonville
DE Quinton Coples, North Carolina
-The Jaguars desperately need a playmaker at WR however it will be easier to obtain one later in the draft or through free agency as opposed to a stud pass rusher.

06. Minnesota
WR Justin Blackmon, Oklahoma State
-Percy Harvin is a good all-around weapon but he'll never be a #1 target. Ponder looks like the real deal and Blackmon will expedite his progression.

07. Cleveland
QB Robert Griffin III, Baylor
-The most intriguing prospect of the draft, Griffin has boom or bust written all over him. I think he's going to be something special in this incredible QB class.

08. Kansas City
OT Riley Reiff, Iowa
-The Chiefs really seem to love their Hawkeyes. Reiff is a mauler and a franchise tackle that the Chiefs can build their offense around.

09. Miami
QB Landry Jones, Oklahoma
-Another QB? The new CBA makes it easier for NFL teams to draft signal callers early in the draft and not be financially strapped.

10. Arizona
OT Mike Adams, Ohio State
-Arizona has many glaring needs but with the money they've invested in Kolb, they need a tackle to protect that investment.

11. Buffalo
WR Michael Floyd, Notre Dame
-The Bills have quickly learned that Stevie Johnson is not capable of being a #1 target but he could be a great #2 next to Floyd.

12. Denver
RB Trent Richardson, Alabama
-John Fox loves drafting RB's high and the Broncos won't hesitate to jump on Richardson if he falls this far.

13. Seattle
QB Tyler Wilson, Arkansas
-The Whitehurst/Jackson experiment has been horrific and Pete Carroll knows he can't win with guys like that.

14. Tampa Bay
LB Vontaze Burfict, Arizona State
-The Bucs run defense has been absolutely terrible since McCoy went down as the LBs have been exposed.

15. Tennessee
LB Manti Te'o, Notre Dame
-The Titans thought they could replace Stephen Tulloch. They thought wrong.

16. Philadelphia
DE Devon Still, Penn State
-The Eagles would love for a MLB to fall to them here but if not they'll draft the versatile defensive linemen.

17. San Diego
CB Dre Kirkpatrick, Alabama
-Quentin Jammer has lost a step and the Chargers are extremely weak at the corner position.

18. Detroit
OG David DeCastro, Stanford
-The Lions interior line cannot open any holes so why not draft the best interior linemen in this class?

19. NY Giants
OT Jonathan Martin, Stanford
-Kareem McKenzie's career is slowly finishing up and some view Martin may be a better fit on the right side of the line.

20. Cincinnati
CB Janoris Jenkins, North Alabama
-The Bengals haven't exactly been shy of taking chances with questionable characters. The talent is there.

*21. Dallas
CB Alfonzo Dennard, Nebraska
-Dennard is an all-around corner who might be the perfect fit to Rob Ryan's coverage scheme.

*22. NY Jets
DE Melvin Ingram, South Carolina
-A likely combine monster, scouts will love this guy and he could make an immediate impact on the Jets defense,

*23. Cincinnati (f/Oakland)
RB Chris Polk, Washington
-The Bengals are a RB away from consistently contending with the Steelers and Ravens.

*24. Chicago
WR Alshon Jeffery, South Carolina
-Jeffery has a top 5 skillset but as my buddy Bryan Bonafede points out he just won't time good enough in the 40.

*25. Baltimore
LB Zach Brown, North Carolina
-Ozzie Newsome loves to draft the best player available and Brown is the man.

*26. New England
WR Kendall Wright, Baylor
-The Patriots offense lacks a deep threat like Mike Wallace. Wright may go higher than this.

*27. Cleveland (f/Atlanta)
DT Brandon Thompson, Clemson
-The Browns defensive line has overachieved and lacks the talent needed to turn this franchise around.

*28. New England (f/New Orleans)
DE/LB Whitney Mercilus, Illinois
-Like Ingram, Mercilus figures to be a combine riser and a pure pass rusher that the Patriots severely lack.

*29. Houston
S Mark Barron, Alabama
-The best defense in the NFL? Outside of weak safety play absolutely could be.

*30. San Francisco
DE Nick Perry, Southern Cal
-Jim Harbaugh has brought solid fundamental football to the Bay area and Perry is the kind of guy he'll love.

*31. Pittsburgh
OT Nate Potter, Boise State
-The Steelers offensive line is the worst in the league.

*32. Green Bay
DT Jerel Worthy, Michigan State
-The Packers underestimated how much Cullen Jenkins meant to this team.

Talk about your all-time unexpected surprises. I (like many others, I'm sure) lamented the fact that there were so few marquee games on last weekend's slate, but turns out there was still plenty of chaos left in the tank.

Thursday night was just the beginning, with Virginia Tech surviving a fourth quarter surge by North Carolina and Southern Miss seeing its BCS dreams dashed by by UAB in a stunning upset.

But the real treat came on Friday night, something we've grown accustomed to by now. I ignored the obvious warning signs and picked Oklahoma State to win huge, despite college football's harbinger of doom Joe Tessitore in the broadcast booth. His influence was clearly felt during a game-winning field goal attempt by Oklahoma State that barely missed. Color commentator Rod Gilmore, perhaps foreshadowing things to come, referenced last year's Boise State/Nevada thriller, a game also called by Rod and Tess. The Cyclones would triumph in double overtime, but our man Tessitore wasn't done. We'll see him again in a little bit.

I rarely watch College Gameday. I despise the show. For reasons I'm unsure of, I tuned in near the end of Saturday morning's broadcast. Wow, was that a good decision or what? The video below says it all:



What better way to start off a chaotic day in college football?

Saturday brought another nooner for South Carolina, a pay-per-view tilt against The Citadel. So yeah, I watched other games. Georgia struggled with a horrid Kentucky team but ultimately clinched the SEC East. Other SEC teams struggled with FCS opponents, which is always fun, but unfortunately none lost. Clemson pulled a Clemson and got smoked by NC State. USC and Oregon played one of the games of the year. Stanford/Cal got wild. Virginia/Florida State needed a 4+ minute review to give the Seminoles a chance at a game-winning field goal that was missed. And then our man Tess struck again, this time in Waco, with Robert Griffin III's touchdown pass with eight seconds to play giving Baylor a huge win over Oklahoma. In less than 48 hours, Joe Tessitore absolutely decimated the state of Oklahoma. So much for Bedlam being a national semifinal again. Now? Well, it's looking like an all-SEC clash for the title, we just don't know which two teams yet. You'll find three of them occupying the top three spots of my Top 25, along with picks.

1. LSU (-12) vs. 3. Arkansas, Friday 2:30 PM.
Last week's barrage of upsets turned this game from just another high stakes SEC West showdown to the most recent Game of the Year candidate. Unfortunately, I'm not expecting it to live up to the hype. Despite an impressive seven game win streak, my major concern with Arkansas over the past several weeks has been its defense. Bobby Petrino's offenses can always score, but I don't think the Razorbacks can score as many against LSU as they will allow. Keep an eye on Dennis Johnson; he'll have to have a big afternoon for Arkansas to emerge victorious.
Pick: LSU 34, Arkansas 17

2. Alabama (-21) @ Auburn, Saturday 3:30 PM.
The line is probably appropriate given the state of both teams right now, but it's still hard to imagine an Iron Bowl with a three touchdown favorite. Covers.com has results and spreads dating back to the 1985 season, and this year's line is the highest for this rivalry. I don't think I saw anything higher than 15. Auburn's four losses this season have come by a combined 111 points and Alabama's ten wins have come by an average of 30.1 points per game. That means blowout city, right? I see Alabama jumping out to an early lead just like last year, only this time the Crimson Tide won't allow the largest comeback in the history of the rivalry. There may be some tense moments, but this game won't be as close as the score indicates.
Pick: Alabama 30, Auburn 13

4. Oklahoma State BYE

5. Virginia Tech (-4.5) @ 25. Virginia, Saturday 3:30 PM.
Oh boy. This game presents a major dilemma. Joe Tessitore, college football's angel of death, is calling this game on ESPN Saturday afternoon. Guaranteed win for Virginia, right? Not so fast. Also at play is FVSports' own ACC Humiliation Index, which dictates that Virginia Tech must win the ACC every year only to be dumptrucked in a BCS bowl by someone like Rutgers. This game is for the ACC Coastal Division, so I've got to look for David Wilson to carry out the good word of the Humiliation Index and send Virginia Tech to Charlotte. Seriously, though, isn't it awesome that this game actually means something for once?
Pick: Virginia Tech 27, Virginia 20

6. Stanford (-7) vs. 24. Notre Dame, Saturday 8:00 PM.
Stanford is the leader in the Pac-12 North clubhouse with an 8-1 conference record heading into Saturday's finale against Notre Dame. The Cardinal could actually win the division should Oregon (7-1 with a win over Stanford) stumble against Oregon State in the Civil War. Stanford will know its fate by the time this game kicks off, and that very well could have some effect on the game. Even if that is the case, the Cardinal should win as long as they stick to basics. Notre Dame can be run on (142.64 yards allowed per game) and rank 116th in the country in turnover margin (-1.09 per game), areas that Stanford excels in. On paper, it's an easy call.
Pick: Stanford 34, Notre Dame 20

7. Houston (-3) @ Tulsa, Friday 12:00 PM.
Well Houston, this is it. Tulsa is pretty much all that stands between Houston and a BCS berth, as a potential Conference USA match-up with Southern Miss lost a lot of luster after the Golden Eagles bombed against UAB last Thursday night. Tulsa is on a seven game winning streak after completing likely the nation's toughest out of conference schedule (@ Oklahoma, vs. Oklahoma State, @ Boise State), and G.J. Kinne (yes, he's still there) and the boys are tied with Houston atop Conference USA's West Division at 7-0. The Golden Hurricane is balanced enough on offense to cause some problems for Houston, but Tulsa just doesn't defend the pass well enough; it ranks 107th in the nation, allowing 272.55 yards per game - and that's BEFORE Case Keenum comes to town. A valiant upset effort will fall just short.
Pick: Houston 44, Tulsa 40

8. Boise State (-32.5) vs. Wyoming, Saturday 2:00 PM.
Without looking at the standings, take a guess at Wyoming's record. You probably went with 2-8 or so, right? The Cowboys are actually 7-3 and are presently tied with Boise State for second in the Mountain West. Wyoming's gotten it done with a balanced rushing attack and the nation's 2nd best turnover margin. Unfortunately, the Cowboys give up a ton of yards on the ground; Wyoming gave up over 300 yards rushing in each of its three losses. Up next is Boise State senior running back Doug Martin, fresh off a 129 yard outing against San Diego State. Don't think Kellen Moore will be left out, either; Wyoming ranks 86th in the country in pass efficiency defense. It's been a great year for the Cowboys, but they're not quite on Boise State's level yet.
Pick: Boise State 44, Wyoming 16

9. Oregon (-28) vs. Oregon State, Saturday 3:30 PM.
Oregon is officially out of the national championship hunt following last week's loss to USC, but the Ducks can still clinch the Pac-12 North with a win over archrival Oregon State. The Beavers are horrible, so there's not much to consider here. They can't run the ball or stop the run, and they can't score or stop the other team from scoring. Sounds like a trip to Autzen Stadium is a nightmare waiting to happen, doesn't it?
Pick: Oregon 41, Oregon State 14

10. USC (-14) vs. UCLA, Saturday 10:00 PM.
USC looks like one of the best teams in the country right now but unfortunately won't be able to prove itself in the postseason. What the Trojans can do, however, is potentially prevent rival UCLA from winning a pathetic Pac-12 South. The Bruins have been playing hot potato with Arizona State for the division title and currently hold a one game advantage, but a loss to USC could open the division right back up and also possibly open the door for Utah. In order to end a string of cruel beatings at the hands of the Trojans, UCLA will need to run the ball effectively and keep Matt Barkley off the field. That could be tough sledding against a USC defense that allows just 110.27 rushing yards per game, 16th in the country. The Bruins won't be able to concentrate all of their energy on locking down USC receiver Robert Woods, as the emergence of freshman Marqise Lee gives the Trojans a deadly 1-2 pass catching punch.
Pick: USC 32, UCLA 14

11. Michigan State (-6.5) @ Northwestern, Saturday 12:00 PM.
Michigan State clinched the Big Ten Legends Division last week, so there's not really much to play for this week aside from momentum heading to the conference championship game in Indianapolis. Throw in the fact that the Spartans aren't to be trusted on the road following any kind of meaningful win, and you've got yourselves a low point spread against Northwestern. The Wildcats are on a four game winning streak and Saturday will be senior quarterback Dan Persa's final home start. Unfortunately, Michigan State's defense is just too good to stumble in the finale, but it will be close.
Pick: Michigan State 35, Northwestern 28

12. Oklahoma (-28) vs. Iowa State, Saturday 12:00 PM.
Could Iowa State pull off the Oklahoma Double by upsetting the Sooners a week after knocking off Oklahoma State? Well for starters, this game is in Norman and not Ames. Then you have to consider Angry Dad Bob Stoops. What else is there to think about?
Pick: Oklahoma 47, Iowa State 20

13. Wisconsin (-14.5) vs. 19. Penn State, Saturday 3:30 PM.
This one is for the Big Ten Leaders Division. I'm sure conference commish Jim Delany and company don't want Penn State leading anything right now, but the Nittany Lions are a win away from Indianapolis. As I've mentioned before, a Penn State Rose Bowl berth would be the Big Ten's worst case scenario. Fortunately, Wisconsin is here to save the day. The Badgers have caught their second wind after back-to-back losses knocked them out of the national championship picture, racking up three straight wins by over 28 points per game. Penn State's got one of the top defenses in the country, but it hasn't faced an offense like Wisconsin's - yet.
Pick: Wisconsin 35, Penn State 17

14. Kansas State BYE

15. South Carolina (-4) vs. 18. Clemson, Saturday 7:45 PM.
This is a game I dread every year, partly because a South Carolina loss to Clemson means that I'll have to listen to Clemson smack talk for an entire year, and partly because a South Carolina win means that I'll have to listen to South Carolina smack talk for an entire year. Either way, it's not pretty. This match-up is as hyped and/or important as it has been in years, yet neither team looks particularly great heading into it. Clemson has lost two of three and is experiencing serious ball security problems while South Carolina's offense has looked lethargic at best, and don't even start to tell me about the 41 points the Gamecocks scored against The Citadel. Clemson's recent turnover woes would be a major cause for concern given how adept South Carolina is at forcing them, but it's a wash because the Gamecocks turn it over pretty regularly, too. I'd be willing to bet that Sammy Watkins is good to go on Saturday, and that will make a huge difference for Clemson's offense. His presence will also be felt on special teams, as Steve Spurrier lamented his team's inability to keep The Citadel from ripping off big kickoff returns last week. The key to this game is the running ability of South Carolina quarterback Connor Shaw. Shaw has been running for his life ever since taking over for Stephen Garcia, and he will likely be in a similar situation on Saturday. His decision making has been questionable at times, and I think a big turnover or two end up killing the Gamecocks.
Pick: Clemson 31, South Carolina 17

16. Georgia (-6) @ 21. Georgia Tech, Saturday 12:00 PM.
The SEC East Champions come into this game with all the momentum in the world, now riding a nine game winning streak. Georgia Tech has lost three of five and only beat Duke by a touchdown last week. Easy pick, right? All of the weirdo conference homer types will be greatly interested in this one, while I'll be more concerned with Georgia Tech's 2nd ranked rushing offense (323.55 yards per game) taking on Georgia's 2nd ranked run defense (81.27 yards per game). Look for Georgia's run game to make the difference by controlling time of possession.
Pick: Georgia 31, Georgia Tech 27

17. Michigan (-7) vs. Ohio State, Saturday 12:00 PM.
If Michigan doesn't beat Ohio State this year, it might never beat them again. Hyperbolic, I know, but appropriate. Ohio State has flat out owned Michigan lately, with the Wolverines' last win in the series coming in 2003. No, last year's vacated Buckeye win doesn't count. Michigan's got the defense this season to finally end the streak.
Pick: Michigan 28, Ohio State 17

20. TCU BYE

22. Baylor (-12.5) vs. Texas Tech, Saturday 7:00 PM.
Robert Griffin III is finally back in the Heisman race thanks to last week's incredible upset win over Oklahoma. Next in line is the first team to knock off the Sooners this year, Texas Tech. All the Red Raiders can do right now is reminisce about that thriller from a month ago because they haven't won since, losing four straight games by a combined 130 points. Texas Tech gave up 324 all purpose yards to Missouri's James Franklin last week, and I think everyone knows by now how I feel about James Franklin. So just imagine what RG3 will do against an undermanned defense. Baylor's inability to stop anyone means that this could be a fun shootout, and the Red Raiders are playing to extend their bowl eligibility streak to 19.
Pick: Baylor 50, Texas Tech 45

23. West Virginia (-7) vs. Pittsburgh, Friday 7:00 PM.
This may also be a Joe Tessitore Special, in which case put me down for Pitt and let's just end it right there. The Big East is as wide open as ever, with at least five teams in contention for the conference title. This line actually opened at 10, leading me to believe that our man Tess will indeed be in the broadcast booth and the betting public has taken notice. Pitt is nothing special and should lose this game, possibly big, but there might be bigger forces at play here.
Pick: Pittsburgh 24, West Virginia 21

Week 12 Straight Up: 16-6
Season Straight Up: 194-51
Week 12 ATS: 12-8
Season ATS: 120-101-6

Here are a few BCS basics for the fans who may not be aware.
-The top 2 ranked teams in the BCS standings will meet for the National Championship in New Orleans, Louisiana.
-The winners of the Big Ten and Pac Twelve will meet in the Rose Bowl, barring neither is ranked in the top 2 and playing for the NC.
-The SEC champion will play in the Sugar Bowl, barring the team is not ranked in the top 2 and playing for the NC.
-The Big XII champion will play in the Fiesta Bowl, barring the team is not ranked in the top 2 and playing for the NC.
-The ACC champion will play in the Orange Bowl, barring the team is not ranked in the top 2 and playing for the NC.
-The BCS bowl losing the #1 ranked team in the BCS standings will get the first at-large selection while the BCS bowl losing the #2 ranked team in the BCS standings will get the second at-large selection. Please note that the bowl losing the #1 ranked team is NOT allowed to select an at-large from the same conference as the #2 ranked team per BCS selection rules. For example, in this past seasons BCS standings, the Sugar Bowl would not be allowed to select Stanford to replace Auburn because Stanford is in the same conference as the #2 ranked team.
-The remaining selection order for the 2012 BCS games is; Fiesta, Sugar, and Orange.


The Rose Bowl
January 2, 2012- Pasadena, California
(11-2) Wisconsin vs Oregon (11-2)
Wisconsin losses: at Michigan State, at Ohio State
Oregon losses: vs LSU, vs USC

-Despite setbacks in East Lansing and Columbus, Wisconsin is still the class of the conference and will run the table and win the first ever Big Ten Championship Game in Indianapolis.
-A put up or shut up game awaits Oregon in Pasadena. Dominating regular seasons have led to losses to Ohio State and Auburn the past two seasons and the Ducks should be heavily favored in this one.

Prediction: Oregon 52, Wisconsin 17


The Sugar Bowl
January 3, 2012- New Orleans, Louisiana
(10-2) Michigan vs Houston (12-0)
Michigan losses: at Michigan State, at Iowa

-With two SEC teams in the National Title Game, The Sugar Bowl gets first stab at an at-large and there isn't an option more attractive than a resurgent Michigan coming off a 10 win season.
-The most dynamic passing attack in the country led by an NCAA record holding QB heading to New Orleans to face an SEC team? Case Keenum is hoping for a better result than Colt Brennan.

Prediction: Michigan 41, Houston 34


The Orange Bowl
January 4, 2012- Miami, Florida
(10-3) Clemson vs West Virginia (9-3)
Clemson losses: at Georgia Tech, at NC State, at South Carolina
West Virginia losses: vs LSU, at Syracuse, vs Louisville

-Is Clemson finally going to win the ACC? I see them beating Virginia Tech again for the ACC title.
-West Virginia's offense has been potent at times but really off at others. The Big East is a mess like last year and anyone could emerge.

Prediction: Clemson 48, West Virginia 38


The Fiesta Bowl
January 5, 2012- Glendale, Arizona
(10-2) Oklahoma vs Notre Dame (9-3)
Oklahoma losses: vs Texas Tech, at Baylor
Notre Dame losses: vs USF, at Michigan, vs USC

-Despite laying two eggs this season, Oklahoma is a far better team up and down compared to Oklahoma State. OU wins the Big XII again and books another trip to Glendale.
-The obvious choice here is Stanford but when Notre Dame travels out west and beats the Cardinal they will skyrocket up the polls and get an at-large.

Prediction: Notre Dame 31, Oklahoma 24


BCS National Championship Game
January 9, 2012- New Orleans, Louisiana
(13-0) LSU vs Alabama (11-1)
Alabama loss: vs LSU

-I cannot give Les Miles enough credit for outcoaching the unflappable Nick Saban. There should be no doubt left as to who the best HC in the country is and he's got a pretty talent rich team too.
-Nick Saban is still unflappable. Alabama outplayed LSU in Tuscaloosa and did everything they could to lose that game. Game of the Century Part II will be epic in New Orleans

Prediction: Alabama 13, LSU 6



Others in the BCS picture:
Stanford (10-2)
Virginia Tech (11-2)
Arkansas (10-2)

A noon kickoff last Saturday for South Carolina meant I spent the entire day watching college football. I do that every Saturday anyway, but that early kickoff meant the sick feeling in my stomach associated with Gamecocks football had subsided before 4:00 p.m., which is really nice. What did I learn? That I was wrong about a lot of things. I was wrong about Oregon (seriously, what a performance by the Ducks), I was wrong about TCU (and couldn't have been happier about it), I was wrong about Kansas State (how many times have I said that this year?), I was wrong about Missouri (5 points, Texas? Come on), and I was wrong about West Virginia (something about Big East football should probably go here). Oh, and I was also wrong for expecting Auburn to help South Carolina out in the SEC East title race. An Auburn win over Georgia would have given the Gamecocks the division championship, but instead the Tigers got dumptrucked. Thanks for nothing, Auburn. Still, South Carolina achieved even more "firsts" under Steve Spurrier. Saturday's win over Florida (saying that NEVER gets old) gave the Gamecocks a 5-0 record against SEC East opponents this season, the first time South Carolina has ever accomplished that. The win also resulted in the program's first 6-2 record in SEC play. Add in the fact that the Gamecocks are 6-0 against the former "Big Three" of the East over the last two seasons, and there are still some things to be happy about. We're still pulling like hell for Kentucky to beat Georgia on Saturday, which I think we all would do even if it had no bearing on the division championship. With all that said, here is the Week Twelve Top 25 and some somewhat educated guesses at how those teams will play.

1. LSU (-29.5) @ Mississippi, Saturday 7:00 PM.
Could this be Houston Nutt's last hurrah before leaving Oxford? Doubtful. Ole Miss is bad. Like, really bad. Like, so bad that the Rebels lost to Kentucky. Yeah. It may be a few years old (just switch Ed Orgeron and Colonel Reb with Houston Nutt and...Rebel Black Bear?), but this song IS Ole Miss football.

Pick: LSU 41, Ole Miss 10

2. Oklahoma State (-27) @ Iowa State, Friday 8:00 PM.
The big concern for Oklahoma State on Saturday is that it can't look ahead to Bedlam on December 3rd. Look, Iowa State poses no threat to the Cowboys. The Cyclones will probably run the ball for decent yardage on Saturday, but here's the problem: Iowa State is 110th in the country in turnover margin; Oklahoma State is 1st. Anything Iowa State accomplishes offensively will likely be nullified by a Cowboy takeaway. If Mike Gundy's club can stay focused, it will win easily.
Pick: Oklahoma State 56, Iowa State 24

3. Alabama (N/A) vs. Georgia Southern, Saturday 2:00 PM.
Why? Seriously, why? There's nothing for me to say about this game, other than that the primary objective for Alabama should be to keep everyone healthy. These FCS match-ups are the ultimate no-win situation, but getting to Sunday without any injuries is a win in my book.
Pick: Alabama 63, Georgia Southern 14

4. Oregon (-14.5) vs. 20. USC, Saturday 8:00 PM.
Let's go ahead and call this one the Pac-12 Championship Game. These are the two current division leaders, but USC is ineligible for postseason play and cannot win the conference title. That means either UCLA or Arizona State will represent the South Division, and those teams have been trading losses trying to avoid the spotlight. I have a feeling that I'm going to give Oregon too much credit heading into this game because I didn't give the Ducks enough before last week's beatdown of Stanford. Andrew Luck was hurt severely by a lack of quality receivers, a problem Matt Barkley won't have. USC's top 10 run defense will be put to the test, and I don't expect the Trojans to pass.
Pick: Oregon 43, USC 30

5. Oklahoma (-15.5) @ Baylor, Saturday 8:00 PM.
Oklahoma is fresh off a bye week while Baylor might finally be exhaling after needing a furious rally to beat Kansas on Saturday. Yes, I said Kansas. A 6-3 record has all but eliminated Robert Griffin III's Heisman hopes, and I wouldn't have a problem with it if he blamed that on his defense. Baylor ranks 112th in the country against the run, 81st against the pass, and 108th in scoring defense. And Oklahoma's coming to town. Uh oh.
Pick: Oklahoma 62, Baylor 28

6. Arkansas (-13) vs. Mississippi State, Saturday 3:30 PM.
Arkansas has had it easy the last two weeks after a close call against Vanderbilt, crushing South Carolina and Tennessee in consecutive home games. There's no SEC East team on the schedule this week, but the Razorbacks should still roll comfortably. The offense is what we expect from Bobby Petrino, and well, so is the defense. Mississippi State needs a win to become bowl eligible, a far cry from the preseason hype it received. The Bulldogs have improved their defensive numbers, but it's hard not to with teams like UAB, South Carolina, Kentucky and Tennessee-Martin on the schedule.
Pick: Arkansas 45, Mississippi State 27

Play of the Year? I think so.

7. Clemson (-7.5) @ North Carolina State, Saturday 12:00 PM.
What a fine season my preseason ACC sleeper has turned in. I think I predicted that NC State would win nine games with a Glennon at quarterback. Don't ask me why. The Wolfpack is 5-5 and would really benefit should Clemson decide to pull a Clemson on Saturday. Here's my issue with NC State: it can't move the ball. Clemson's offense could have a catastrophically bad day and still put up 17 points, a number NC State hasn't reached in its last three games. Clemson's already locked up the C̶o̶a̶s̶t̶a̶l̶ Atlantic Division, but don't expect the Tigers to take it easy on the Wolfpack. Believe it or not, Clemson is still in the national title picture, but it needs to win BIG.
Pick: Clemson 34, North Carolina State 13

8. Virginia Tech (-10.5) vs. North Carolina, Thursday 8:00 PM.
A college football season just wouldn't seem right without a Thursday nighter in Blacksburg. Virginia Tech now has a stranglehold on the ACC A̶t̶l̶a̶n̶t̶i̶c̶ Coastal Division after beating Georgia Tech in Atlanta last week. Usually, a big concern when playing on Thursday night is the shorter week leading up to the game, but no worries for the Hokies, as they played on Thursday last week and have had a full week off. If the twitter rumors are true (and they usually aren't), North Carolina could be reaching a deal with Gus Malzahn to become the Tar Heels' new head coach. I guess that's exciting. It certainly couldn't hurt to add some spice to the 62nd ranked offense in the country. The Tar Heels are almost always sound on defense, but there isn't a hotter running back in the country than Virginia Tech's David Wilson. A strong run game and a strong defense means I'm going to pick you to win a LOT of games.
Pick: Virginia Tech 24, North Carolina 10

9. Stanford (-19) vs. California, Saturday 10:15 PM.
Ouch. That's really all that's left to say after Stanford's 23 point loss to Oregon last week. The Cardinal's world class offensive line couldn't spark the power run game, and Andrew Luck's receivers couldn't catch his NFL-caliber throws. Did you see what I did there, Phil Simms? Your sons suck. Anyway, this game could actually get pretty interesting. Cal's got the balance on both sides of the ball to stay competitive. If Jim Harbaugh were still coaching Stanford, I'd trust his killer instinct to absolutely crush Cal. I'm not so sure about David Shaw. I feel like this game will come down to Stanford's ability to run the ball. Cal ranks 29th in the country against the run, allowing 120.3 yards per game; its given up more than that in each of its four losses. If Stanford can reach its average of 215.1 yards per game, it will cover easily. You just never know with rivalry games.
Pick: Stanford 34, California 17

10. Houston (-19.5) vs. SMU, Saturday 3:30 PM.
This is the best defense Houston will face during the regular season. Of course, SMU's defense might be ranked as high as it is because the Mustangs haven't faced Houston yet. Either way, SMU is only allowing 345.2 yards per game, but it will have its hands full with a Houston offense that averages 628.8. Boise State's loss to TCU means that Houston might be able to sneak into the BCS picture, but the Cougars need style points wherever they can get them.
Pick: Houston 63, SMU 30

11. Boise State (-18) @ San Diego State, Saturday 8:00 PM.
For the second straight year, a missed chip shot field goal has cost Boise State a shot at the BCS. Isn't that awesome? Even you weirdo Boise lovers have to admit that the Broncos were absolutely handed the game against TCU thanks to a bogus pass interference call and still couldn't win. The only way the pass in question would have been catchable would have been if the game were played on a SlamBall court, and I think those were outlawed. Ronnie Hillman is having a fantastic year for the Aztecs, but I don't think he can do it all himself against Boise. Still, though, how awesome was last Saturday? This video is for you, Broncos:

Pick: Boise State 34, San Diego State 24

12. Michigan State (-28.5) vs. Indiana, Saturday 12:00 PM.
This game already happened, didn't it? I'm struggling with the Big Ten schedule this year. It feels like everyone has already played Minnesota and Indiana twice. Michigan State's got a one game lead in the Big Ten's Legends Division, and I don't expect the winless Hoosiers to jeopardize that.
Pick: Michigan State 41, Indiana 17

13. Wisconsin (-14) @ Illinois, Saturday 12:00 PM.
It's looking more and more like we gave up on Wisconsin a bit prematurely. Two straight conference losses took the Badgers out of national championship contention, but right now they look like the Big Ten Leaders Division favorites despite being a game behind Penn State. Illinois has completely fallen off the map after starting the season 6-0, losing four straight games and firing coach Ron Zook. A rejuvenated Badgers team has far more to play for than Illinois, and it will show.
Pick: Wisconsin 41, Illinois 24

14. Kansas State (+9.5) @ Texas, Saturday 8:00 PM.
I'm convinced Kansas State's line each week is a joke. Vegas must not believe in the Wildcats, which I guess I can understand. What I can't understand, though, is why Vegas would believe in Texas. The Longhorns are a mess and have been hit hard by injuries. Last week's 17-5 loss to Missouri was an absolute embarrassment. I'm still not really blown away by Kansas State, but I'm having a hard time predicting losses for the Wildcats. I don't think anyone expected them to beat either Oklahoma team, but they've been solid in their other games. Quarterback Collin Klein might be the country's most valuable player. Of course, now that I believe in them, they will probably lose.
Pick: Kansas State 38, Texas 28

15. South Carolina (N/A) vs. The Citadel, Saturday 12:00 PM.
These games are stupid. Again, just keep everyone healthy. I'm curious to see if South Carolina can end a streak of 13 straight games where its opponent has scored first, but that's about it.
Pick: South Carolina 45, The Citadel 6

16. Georgia (-30.5) vs. Kentucky, Saturday 12:20 PM.
Congratulations to Georgia for winning the SEC East. I mean, yeah, the Bulldogs still have to beat Kentucky on Saturday, but who can't beat Kentucky? Sorry, Ole Miss. Past Kentucky teams were always good for a pretty big upset each year, but these Wildcats have absolutely no playmakers. So, unless something impossible happens, Georgia will benefit from the easiest conference schedule in the history of the SEC and clinch the East Division.
Pick: Georgia 48, Kentucky 10

17. Michigan (-3.5) vs. 18. Nebraska, Saturday 12:00 PM.
Consider this a Big Ten elimination game. Both teams are tied at 4-2, a game behind Michigan State in the Legends Division. The Denard Robinson vs. Taylor Martinez match-up will be a fun one, and I think Michigan has the better defense. When's the last time we praised a Michigan defense?
Pick: Michigan 24, Nebraska 17

19. Penn State (+7) @ Ohio State, Saturday 3:30 PM.
Yeah, I still don't have a clue about Penn State. I think we all figured the Nittany Lions would be in big trouble once they got to the end of their schedule, but not like this. No statistics or trends matter in this game, obviously, because this Penn State team is nothing like it was any other week this season. Like last week, this game will just be a guess. I'm just glad that Penn State fans will have a few hours of normalcy on Saturday before returning to the nightmare on their campus.
Pick: Penn State 24, Ohio State 21

21. Southern Miss (-23) @ UAB, Thursday 8:00 PM.
Southern Miss survived a big scare from Central Florida last week when the Knights' game-winning two point conversion attempt with no time left was unsuccessful. This week presents a much easier task in a poor UAB team, though the Blazers did beat Memphis last Saturday. UAB isn't good enough offensively to beat Southern Miss, nor is it good enough defensively.
Pick: Southern Miss 37, UAB 17

22. TCU (-33) vs. Colorado State, Saturday 3:30 PM.
Thank you, TCU. Thank you, thank you, thank you. The passing attack that I didn't think was good enough to beat Boise State put up 473 yards on the Broncos, and its five-game winning streak mirrors Colorado State's five-game losing skid. The Horned Frogs won't have to worry about a last-second field goal attempt this weekend.
Pick: TCU 45, Colorado State 14

Where'd that Nelson Muntz video go?

23. Georgia Tech (-10) @ Duke, Saturday 12:30 PM.
This line is scary low, and that scares me. This is the same Duke that allows ~30 points per game, right? The same Duke that can't run the ball? The same Duke that isn't particularly adept at stopping the pass, either? Something must have happened that I don't know about, because a loss to Virginia Tech shouldn't be cause for such a low spread. I guess we'll find out Saturday.
Pick: Georgia Tech 41, Duke 17

24. West Virginia BYE

25. Florida State (-17) vs. Virginia, Saturday 7:30 PM.
Florida State has quietly put together a five game winning streak. Of course, you're not going to get a whole lot of attention after losing to Wake Forest, but the Seminoles have done a nice job of bouncing back, with those five wins coming by nearly 24 points per game. Virginia is a very quiet 7-3 and still has a shot at the ACC A̶t̶l̶a̶n̶t̶i̶c̶ Coastal Division. Name value of the two programs may have had some effect on the line, but it's pretty fair. Virginia's going to have a lot of trouble running the ball against Florida State, and that's a problem.
Pick: Florida State 30, Virginia 20

Week 11 Straight Up: 15-5
Season Straight Up: 178-45
Week 11 ATS: 11-7-2
Season ATS: 108-93-6

Here are a few BCS basics for the fans who may not be aware.
-The top 2 ranked teams in the BCS standings will meet for the National Championship in New Orleans, Louisiana.
-The winners of the Big Ten and Pac Twelve will meet in the Rose Bowl, barring neither is ranked in the top 2 and playing for the NC.
-The SEC champion will play in the Sugar Bowl, barring the team is not ranked in the top 2 and playing for the NC.
-The Big XII champion will play in the Fiesta Bowl, barring the team is not ranked in the top 2 and playing for the NC.
-The ACC champion will play in the Orange Bowl, barring the team is not ranked in the top 2 and playing for the NC.
-The BCS bowl losing the #1 ranked team in the BCS standings will get the first at-large selection while the BCS bowl losing the #2 ranked team in the BCS standings will get the second at-large selection. Please note that the bowl losing the #1 ranked team is NOT allowed to select an at-large from the same conference as the #2 ranked team per BCS selection rules. For example, in this past seasons BCS standings, the Sugar Bowl would not be allowed to select Stanford to replace Auburn because Stanford is in the same conference as the #2 ranked team.
-The remaining selection order for the 2012 BCS games is; Fiesta, Sugar, and Orange.


The Rose Bowl
January 2, 2012- Pasadena, California
(11-2) Wisconsin vs Oregon (12-1)
Wisconsin losses: at Michigan State, at Ohio State
Oregon loss: vs LSU

-Despite setbacks in East Lansing and Columbus, Wisconsin is still the class of the conference and will run the table and win the first ever Big Ten Championship Game in Indianapolis.
-A put up or shut up game awaits Oregon in Pasadena. Dominating regular seasons have led to losses to Ohio State and Auburn the past two seasons and the Ducks should be heavily favored in this one.

Prediction: Oregon 52, Wisconsin 17


The Sugar Bowl
January 3, 2012- New Orleans, Louisiana
(11-1) Alabamavs Houston (12-0)
Alabama loss: vs LSU
-After a gut wrenching overtime lose at home to LSU in which Alabma was clearly the better team, it's going to be a bitter pill to be left out of the NC game. Could it be Utah all over again?
-The most dynamic passing attack in the country led by an NCAA record holding QB heading to New Orleans to face an SEC team? Case Keenum is hoping for a better result than Colt Brennan.

Prediction: Alabama 45, Houston 14


The Orange Bowl
January 4, 2012- Miami, Florida
(11-2) Clemson vs West Virginia (10-2)
Clemson losses: at Georgia Tech, at South Carolina
West Virginia losses: vs LSU, at Syracuse, vs Louisville
-Is Clemson finally going to win the ACC? I see them beating Virginia Tech again for the ACC title.
-West Virginia's offense has been potent at times but really off at others. The Big East is a mess like last year and anyone could emerge.

Prediction: Clemson 48, West Virginia 38


The Fiesta Bowl
January 5, 2012- Glendale, Arizona
(11-1) Oklahoma State vs Notre Dame (9-3)
Oklahoma State loss: vs Oklahoma
Notre Dame losses: vs USF, at Michigan, vs USC
-Does anyone honestly see OSU beating OU? This mighty be ugly enough to keep the Fiesta Bowl Committee from even taking the Cowboys as an at-large. Strong rumors persist that the Fiesta committee is still annoyed at being forced to take UConn last season.
-As mentioned above, the Fiesta Committee is angry and will take a powerhouse program here, be it an at-large from the Big Ten or Notre Dame. Their decision is made easier when ND beats Stanford.

Prediction: Notre Dame 45, Oklahoma State 41


BCS National Championship Game
January 9, 2012- New Orleans, Louisiana
(13-0) LSU vs Oklahoma (11-1)
Oklahoma loss: vs Texas Tech
-I cannot give Les Miles enough credit for outcoaching the unflappable Nick Saban. There should be no doubt left as to who the best HC in the country is and he's got a pretty talent rich team too.
-The Bedlam game lost a lot of its national appeal when Oklahoma decided to, well be Oklahoma, and folded at home against Texas Tech. With that said, guess who is back in the National Championship for the fourth time in nine seasons?

Prediction: Louisiana State 27, Oklahoma 20



Others in the BCS picture:
Stanford (10-2)
Nebraska (10-2)
Arkansas (10-2)
Virginia Tech (11-2)

As I began to type this, Joe Paterno was being fired as head football coach at Penn State University. I sat and watched coverage of the press conference and ensuing campus riots for around four hours Wednesday night, completely unable to write about anything football-related. I mean, Joe Paterno got fired. I always said jokingly that he'd die on the field before he retired, and that Penn State fans might run him to the taxidermist so that he could stay on the sidelines for decades more. To call what's happened over the last few days surreal and bizarre would be an understatement of epic proportions. This is the worst scandal to ever hit collegiate athletics.

Take a minute to let that sink in, if it hasn't already. This is the worst scandal to ever hit collegiate athletics. Possibly all of sports, though I can't say for sure.

Unless you've been living under a rock for the past few days, you know exactly what I'm talking about. A child molestation scandal involving former Penn State defensive coordinator Jerry Sandusky has rocked the sports world. As we delve deeper into the story, more and more sickening layers of detail are uncovered. My fear is that we've only scratched the surface.

I'm not going to spend a whole lot of space here on Penn State because I've already spent hours reading, talking and writing about the situation. Don't worry; there are going to be plenty more opportunities to talk about this for DECADES to come. Yes, I said decades.

Paterno's firing has eliminated one of my major points, which was that he needed to be fired as soon as possible. With that settled, it's time to move on to a far more trivial matter; Penn State has a football game on Saturday. A pretty big one, too. That game will be covered below along with the rest of the games featuring teams in my Top 25.

1. LSU (-41.5) vs. Western Kentucky, Saturday 7:00 PM.
Has there ever been a more anticlimactic game than this? LSU beat Alabama in the Game of the Century (this year's version, anyway) last week, and will now host the mighty Hilltoppers of Western Kentucky. Actually, LSU fans probably could use a stress-free Saturday. Enjoy 10-0.
Pick: LSU 63, Western Kentucky 6

2. Stanford (-3.5) vs. 6. Oregon, Saturday 8:00 PM.
The Pac-12 might have a thing or two to say about all that Game of the Century talk. This could turn into the National Title semifinal that we all expected Oklahoma/Oklahoma State to be. The winner will all but assuredly host the Pac-12 Championship against either UCLA or Arizona State. What was I just saying about anticlimactic match-ups? For Stanford to win, it needs to use Andrew Luck as little as possible and establish the run game to control time of possession. The Cardinal can be beaten through the air as we saw two weeks ago against USC, but Matt Barkley and Robert Woods aren't lining up for Oregon.
Pick: Stanford 35, Oregon 30

3. Oklahoma State (-17) @ Texas Tech, Saturday 12:00 PM.
Could Texas Tech possibly derail the national title hopes of both Oklahoma schools? No one is going to mistake Tommy Tuberville for Mike Leach on Texas Tech's sideline, but these Red Raiders can still sling the ball around, averaging 362 passing yards per game. Oklahoma State's pass defense (its entire defense, really) is a weak spot, ranking 100th in the country. So does that mean Lubbock is Upset City on Saturday? Hardly. Oklahoma State's offense is as good as any in the country, and Texas Tech isn't exactly lighting it up defensively, either. It's never a good thing to have injuries in the secondary when Brandon Weeden comes to town, and the Red Raiders have been crushed two straight weeks. Make it three.
Pick: Oklahoma State 56, Texas Tech 24

4. Alabama (-17) @ Mississippi State, Saturday 7:45 PM.
As long as this game doesn't come down to field goals, Alabama's fine, right? Poor special teams and a rare out-coaching of Nick Saban contributed greatly to the Crimson Tide's loss to LSU last week. That likely won't happen again this week when Mississippi State comes to town. Dan Mullen has yet to beat an SEC West opponent not named Ole Miss, and that's a bit of a problem given that the Bulldogs reside in the division. Don't get too excited by State's 16th ranked scoring defense; take a look at the schedule. Alabama rebounded from its loss to LSU last season with a 30-10 win over Mississippi State. Expect a similar result.
Pick: Alabama 36, Mississippi State 17

5. Boise State (-15) vs. 25. TCU, Saturday 3:30 PM.
Welcome back to my Top 25, TCU. Now promptly leave. This was supposed to be Boise State's second "big" game of 2011, but TCU fell off the map after losing to Baylor in its Friday night opener. The Horned Frogs have climbed back into the conversation by winning seven of eight games, but it hasn't been pretty. Boise State has dominated vastly inferior competition, much like every other year. This has the potential to be another great game in an entertaining mini-rivalry, especially if TCU can get its 16th ranked rushing attack into gear early. If not, watch out, because the Horned Frogs can't pass the ball well enough to fight back from a big deficit. Boise State is just too good.
Pick: Boise State 45, TCU 28

7. Oklahoma BYE

8. Arkansas (-14) vs. Tennessee, Saturday 6:00 PM.
Arkansas' offense is even scary when it shoots itself in the foot. A 24-14 halftime lead over South Carolina last week should have been 38-7, but two dropped touchdown passes and a pick six by Devin Taylor kept the Gamecocks within striking distance. That should have been 38 first half points against the defense that held Tennessee to 3 in Knoxville two weeks ago. Uh oh. The Volunteers still can't run the ball, and their QB situation is bleak. Arkansas, on the other hand, is on another late-season roll, and I can't imagine the Razorbacks not cruising to a win at home Saturday. Don't panic if the Vols are close or leading at halftime; they do that all the time.
Pick: Arkansas 38, Tennessee 17

9. Clemson (-16.5) vs. Wake Forest, Saturday 12:00 PM.
Poor Wake Forest. The Demon Deacons are in an unenviable position, having to travel to Clemson to face a Tigers team that has been stewing during a bye week over its first loss of the year. Wake Forest's success this year (yes, 5-4 is successful) has been baffling, since it isn't particularly great at anything. Quarterback Tanner Price and wide receiver Chris Givens have been a solid combination this year for the Demon Deacons, but they'll learn a thing or two from Tajh Boyd and Sammy Watkins, the most dangerous duo in the nation. Clemson's still got some defensive issues to work out, but I can't see Wake Forest winning a shootout anyway.
Pick: Clemson 44, Wake Forest 17

10. Virginia Tech (-1) @ 18. Georgia Tech, Thursday 8:00 PM.
It's impossible to pick a Georgia Tech game. It really is. I never have a clue if Paul Johnson's offense is going to work or not, and that's a problem. If the Yellow Jackets are on, they're unstoppable. If they're off? It gets ugly. I've got to play the odds here and side with Virginia Tech's defense, don't I? Throw in David Wilson (131.67 yards per game) versus Georgia Tech's run defense (162.11 yards per game), and I like the Hokies.
Pick: Virginia Tech 27, Georgia Tech 21

11. Houston (-34) @ Tulane, Thursday 8:00 PM.
Sorry, Tulane. What else can you say about Houston's opponents this season? It's almost unfair.
Pick: Houston 69, Tulane 20

12. Penn State (+3) vs. 20. Nebraska, Saturday 12:00 PM.
Yeah, I don't have a clue here. It's Senior Day at Penn State. Joe Paterno won't be there. I don't even know if Penn State's seniors will play; there's a rumor that they'll sit in protest, but we'll just have to wait for Saturday to find out. This is a big game, by the way. Penn State has a commanding two game lead in the Big Ten's Leaders Division, but here comes the meat of the schedule. Games against Ohio State and Wisconsin follow Saturday's tilt with the Cornhuskers. Is a Penn State title the worst case scenario for the Big Ten? Can you imagine this scandal following the Nittany Lions to Pasadena and the Rose Bowl? I have no idea what to expect from the players on Saturday. I have no idea what to expect from the fans, either. Add in the fact that Nebraska is one of the country's most unpredictable teams, and I've just got to take a wild guess.
Pick: Nebraska 23, Penn State 16

13. Michigan State (-2.5) @ Iowa, Saturday 12:00 PM.
Oh boy, Sparty's on the road again. It's hard to trust Michigan State outside of East Lansing, but at least Saturday's game at Iowa won't be immediately after a big win. If that were the case, I wouldn't even consider picking the Spartans. Iowa's another team I just can't figure out. You may remember that I hammered the Hawkeyes last week, ripping them for losing to Minnesota and then predicting that they'd lose by double digits to Michigan. So of course Iowa won. The Hawkeyes are undefeated at home, which makes me like their chances a bit more, and liking them more makes me like them less. I have absolutely no clue. Thanks, Iowa.
Pick: Michigan State 24, Iowa 21

14. Wisconsin (-27) @ Minnesota, Saturday 3:30 PM.
Yeah, Minnesota is flat out terrible. Wisconsin rebounded nicely from back-to-back conference losses by crushing Purdue by 45 points. Whether or not the Golden Gophers can lose by more is the only intriguing storyline in this one.
Pick: Wisconsin 55, Minnesota 14

15. Kansas State (+4.5) vs. Texas A&M, Saturday 3:30 PM.
I mentioned on multiple occasions that Kansas State was the least respected undefeated team, or something along those lines, and the last two weeks have showed the nation why. Two straight losses to the Oklahoma schools have knocked the Wildcats down in the rankings, but they've still got a great shot at winning the Big XII North. Oh wait, they don't do that anymore. So, never mind. Kansas State quarterback Collin Klein was phenomenal in last week's loss at Oklahoma State; he passed for 231 yards, rushed for 158, and accounted for four touchdowns. I don't think Texas A&M is particularly good, but I've got a feeling Kansas State suffers a major letdown after last week's upset bid came up short.
Pick: Texas A&M 44, Kansas State 38

16. South Carolina (-3.5) vs. Florida, Saturday 12:00 PM.
This game was supposed to be an opportunity for South Carolina to clinch the SEC East title, but last week's loss to Arkansas spoiled that, and it now appears that Georgia is going to back into a spot in Atlanta. A win over Florida would give the Gamecocks a 5-0 record against the rest of the division, another first during Steve Spurrier's tenure. Florida's speedsters could give South Carolina fits, but the return of Thorpe Award semifinalist Antonio Allen from a neck injury will give South Carolina a huge boost. Expect a slug fest, partially because of great players on defense but largely because of two weak offenses. Sounds like Game of the Century material to me.
Pick: South Carolina 24, Florida 14

17. Georgia (-13.5) vs. Auburn, Saturday 3:30 PM.
By the time this game kicks off on Saturday, Georgia will know exactly where it stands in terms of clinching the SEC East. A South Carolina loss would lock it up for the Bulldogs, while a win would require Georgia to beat Auburn and Kentucky. I'm not sure why I mentioned Kentucky. The noon game in Columbia could prove to be a bit of a distraction, but this Georgia team is on a roll. If the Bulldogs had any fold in them, it would have come out against Florida two weeks ago. Instead, Georgia fought back from a 17-3 deficit to beat the Gators. Maybe that's more indicative of Florida than Georgia, but it's hard to argue with seven consecutive wins. Georgia's got the defense to keep Auburn bottled up and the ground game to run the Tigers over.
Pick: Georgia 30, Auburn 17

19. Michigan (-1) @ Illinois, Saturday 3:30 PM.
I feel like I've already picked this game about four times this year. Illinois has completely disappeared after its 6-0 start, dropping three straight games. Michigan has suffered a bit of a slide too, losing two of three after opening 7-0, but the Legends Division is still very much in play. I'd love for another 67-65 thriller like last year, but these defenses are too good for that, right? In a battle of two outstanding dual-threat quarterbacks, I like Denard Robinson to do just a little bit more than Nathan Scheelhaase.
Pick: Michigan 20, Illinois 17

21. Texas (-1) @ Missouri, Saturday 12:00 PM.
If you ever read my previews, and odds are you don't, you know that I rip on Missouri's James Franklin every chance I get. It's probably not fair, but I've seen Missouri play on multiple occasions and I still don't understand how that offense puts up the yards and points that it does. I'll just assume that the Tigers continue to inexplicably do well and instead focus on the defense. It's not good, and it's facing an offense that has racked up a ton of momentum by beating up on bad defenses the last two weeks. I think Texas can do just enough defensively, especially against the run, to outscore Missouri.
Pick: Texas 34, Missouri 30

22. USC (-12.5) vs. Washington, Saturday 3:45 PM.
It's got to hurt for USC to see itself as part of the three-way tie atop the Pac-12's South Division yet not have an opportunity to win it. Ineligible for postseason play, all the Trojans can do is rack up as many regular season wins as possible and get ready for next year. Each team has a bottom 20 pass defense and a top 20 quarterback. I smell a shootout. That said, the run game could be the difference; USC ranks 18th defensively while Washington is 52nd. I don't expect a whole lot of defense to be played on Saturday, but what little there is will be played by the Trojans.
Pick: USC 38, Washington 24

23. Cincinnati (-3.5) vs. West Virginia, Saturday 12:00 PM.
It's weird to look at a Cincinnati/West Virginia game and immediately think that the Bearcats will win, isn't it? Cincinnati has been king of the comeback lately, which should come in handy against a West Virginia team that typically only shows up for one half. That's enough for me to pick the Bearcats, despite concerns that Geno Smith will absolutely shred Cincinnati's secondary.
Pick: Cincinnati 40, West Virginia 35

24. Southern Miss (-8.5) vs. Central Florida, Saturday 8:00 PM.
Southern Miss continues to roll, now 8-1 and riding a seven game win streak. UCF's defense should provide a fantastic test for the Golden Eagles. A win on Saturday might be all USM needs to take home the Conference USA East Division crown, which would be Larry Fedora's first. Its ability to get after the quarterback and tackle ball carries behind the line of scrimmage will give Southern Miss a big advantage. UCF showed some promise early in the year and appeared to be one of the top mid-majors, but a handful of tough losses have vastly outweighed an early blowout of Boston College. The Knights are a tougher squad than the record suggests, and it will show on Saturday.
Pick: Southern Miss 30, UAB 24

Week 10 Straight Up: 13-5
Season Straight Up: 163-40
Week 10 ATS: 11-7
Season ATS: 97-86-4

It's finally here, ladies and gentlemen. The game we've been waiting for all year. That's right, it's Alabama/LSU week. And of course, the game is being played at the same time as South Carolina/Arkansas. Here's hoping Holly Rowe or whoever is working the sidelines in Fayetteville asks Steve Spurrier a question to which he responds, "Well, I don't think anyone's watching right now anyway," then sucking his teeth the way only he can before saying something about coaching 'em up, at which point we'll all wonder which game he's referring to. How about a quick recap of Week Nine? I spent the weekend in beautiful Knoxville, Tennessee, taking in my first game at Neyland Stadium. I'd highly recommend that any college football fan go, but wait another year or so until Tennessee is good again before going. Or, if you like having personal space, go now while the attendance is below 100,000. If you do go to Neyland, or any stadium for that matter, pay attention to the game on the field. Keep your phone in your pocket or stay home. While I found Clemson's struggles against Georgia Tech humorous, I didn't need to hear play by play from the people in my section the entire night. Not sure if you guys noticed, but we're watching South Carolina play Tennessee. I'll catch the Clemson score on SportsCenter, or any one of the three hundred times they flash it on one of the scoreboards inside the stadium. Fortunately, I didn't have to rely on the stadium scoreboard for much, as the really exciting games seemed to sandwich the one I was at. That gave me plenty of opportunities to watch most of my picks last week miss the mark, so I'm back this week with a new Top 25 and new (hopefully better) predictions.

1. Alabama (-5) vs. 2. LSU, Saturday 8:00 PM.
I might as well only write about this game, right? I mean, it's the Game of the Year. It's a national championship semifinal (Oklahoma/Oklahoma State was supposed to be the other) that will have people, barring a blowout, screaming for a title game rematch in January. So where do I even start with this game? Both teams have incredible defenses. Both teams run the ball well. Both teams take care of the ball. Both teams have question marks at quarterback - despite each having great touchdown-to-interception ratios, I think it's fair to assume that one (or both) of them will screw up at some point. LSU strikes me as being the more explosive team, but it's really hard to pick against a defense allowing just 6.88 points per game. Alabama's gaining more yards, allowing fewer, scoring more points and allowing fewer. Easy pick, huh? I'll side with home field advantage and Nick Saban, though I will admit I have absolutely no clue what Les Miles has up his sleeve for this game, and I imagine Les doesn't know, either. Here's hoping it lives up to the immense hype.
Pick: Alabama 27, LSU 24

3. Stanford (-21) @ Oregon State, Saturday 3:30 PM.
Stanford survived a thriller in Los Angeles last week, thanks in large part to a bogus flag against USC's T.J. McDonald on the Cardinal's game-tying drive near the end of regulation. This week brings a much easier challenge. Oregon State boasts a rushing offense matched in futility only by its pass efficiency defense; both rank 108th in FBS. The Beavers move the ball well through the air, averaging 289 passing yards per game, but quarterback Sean Mannion has thrown for more interceptions than touchdowns, heavily contributing to Oregon State's negative turnover margin. Stanford, on the other hand, ranks 12th in turnover margin. The Beavers might be able to move the ball on Saturday, but don't expect them to cash in often. The nation's longest winning streak grows to 17.
Pick: Stanford 41, Oregon State 17

4. Oklahoma State (-21) vs. 18. Kansas State, Saturday 8:00 PM.
The hits keep on coming for Kansas State. Last week's beat down at the hands of Oklahoma dropped the Wildcats significantly in the polls, and they're already bracing for an aftershock. This will be a meeting of two powerful offenses, but if it turns into a shootout, I'll take the Cowboys' quick strike pass attack over Kansas State's running game. Texas and Missouri each rushed for nearly 300 yards against Oklahoma State, yet lost by 12 and 21 points, respectively. I'm not entirely convinced that Kansas State will do that much better.
Pick: Oklahoma State 51, Kansas State 21

5. Boise State (-41) @ UNLV, Saturday 10:30 PM.
Earlier in the season, after UNLV's Week Two loss to Washington State, I asked on our forum how bad the Runnin' Rebels could be. After all, they had just lost by 59 to Washington State. That doesn't happen terribly often. Well, UNLV responded with a win over WAC favorite Hawaii, cause for a double take, and then the fun really started. UNLV kicked off a three game losing streak with a 25 point defeat at the hands of FCS Southern Utah and then dropped two more to Nevada and Wyoming by a combined 64 points. After a win over Colorado State thanks to a touchdown with 1:20 to play, UNLV hosts Boise State. The Broncos are still hanging on in the national title picture, but they need to record lopsided wins (37-26 over Air Force isn't going to cut it) and hope some teams above them lose.
Pick: Boise State 48, UNLV 6

6. Oregon (-16.5) @ Washington, Saturday 10:30 PM.
Washington's gotten off to a nice start this year, winning six of eight games, but the Huskies have also been exposed as pretenders. They needed a fourth quarter flurry to make the box score look pretty in a loss to Nebraska and got crushed by Stanford. Quarterback Keith Price has fans asking, "Jake who?" and running back Chris Polk has reached the 1,000 yard plateau for the third consecutive season. Pretty good stuff, right? Chip Kelly and his coaching staff will certainly be concerned with the Huskies' offense, but will absolutely salivate over Washington's pass defense (117th in the country) and scoring defense (103rd). Washington has done well stopping the run so far, but these Ducks are a different animal. Darron Thomas and LaMichael James saw action for Oregon last week, meaning an already tall task is now a lot tougher.
Pick: Oregon 38, Washington 17

7. Oklahoma (-13.5) vs. Texas A&M, Saturday 3:30 PM.
Angry Dad Bob Stoops struck with a vengeance last week, crushing previously unbeaten Kansas State in Manhattan, 58-17. Now he's back on his turf, and when Bob Stoops is in Angry Dad mode, the last thing you want to do is come into his living room. The Aggies might stall for a little bit after school, hanging around at the bus stop longer than normal, but they've got to come home sometime. There are laws about that. On Saturday afternoon, it will be time for A&M to get its whipping. Oklahoma's offense is the best in the country (statistically, Houston's is better, but come on) and Texas A&M has had great difficulty trying to stop teams. Brandon Weeden passed for 438 yards against the Aggies, Tyler Wilson set an Arkansas record with 510, Texas Tech's Seth Doege threw for 391, and RG3 put up 430. Next up is Landry Jones. The run defense may be ranked among the nation's best, but why run against the Aggies when you can pass for over 300 yards per game? Even then, they can be run on; Missouri rushed for 308 last week. On the flip side, Oklahoma can also be beaten through the air (but still give up ~100 less yards per game than A&M), and Ryan Tannehill is more than capable of doing the job. If the Aggies can consistently pressure Jones and add to their 3.75 sacks per game (#2 in the nation), they can hang around. But then you have to add in the Stoops factor. He's already on a rampage because of the loss to Texas Tech, but he's also got revenge on his mind; A&M beat Oklahoma by two touchdowns in College Station last year. Stoops wants to inflict pain, and he's got the horses to do it.
Pick: Oklahoma 51, Texas A&M 30

Angry Bob Stoops votes for death.

8. Arkansas (-5) vs. 9. South Carolina, Saturday 7:15 PM.
Wait, you mean there's another match-up of top ten SEC teams? LSU/Alabama will get all of the publicity, but this might (hopefully) turn out to be a pretty nice game. Both teams are 7-1. South Carolina needs to win to keep a step ahead of Georgia in the East and Arkansas needs to win to keep the West leader within reach. Arkansas has owned this rivalry lately, winning four of the last five, and each year a Razorbacks offensive player makes a national statement against the Gamecocks. Could this year be Tyler Wilson's turn? He'll have his work cut out for him against South Carolina's Angry Birds defense which ranks 3rd nationally against the pass, 6th in total defense and tied for 2nd in takeaways. The Gamecocks have struggled mightily on offense, thanks in large part to inconsistency on the offensive line. Losing lineman Kyle Nunn may have been a bigger blow to this team than the dismissal of Stephen Garcia or the injury to Marcus Lattimore. South Carolina's going to have to run the ball to win the game, much like it did last week. With Tennessee daring them to run, the Gamecocks rushed for 231 yards (137 from freshman Brandon Wilds) in a 14-3 win. Arkansas' run defense is ranked 89th nationally, so it might not be able to use an extra man in pass coverage should Wilds find similar success. Connor Shaw will also be a dangerous runner, which is probably just as well since he has had no time to throw. Arkansas has almost been burned by slow starts on more than one occasion this year; the Razorbacks fell behind early against Texas A&M, Ole Miss and Vanderbilt before mounting furious rallies to win. Another slow start this week won't be as problematic for Arkansas, as South Carolina actually has it worse in that aspect. The Gamecocks haven't scored first in a game since November 20th, 2010, against Troy - a span of 11 games. The silver lining is that South Carolina is 8-3 in those games. Unfortunately, despite having a far better defense, I don't think the Gamecocks can score enough to win this week.
Pick: Arkansas 31, South Carolina 17

10. Clemson BYE

11. Virginia Tech BYE

12. Nebraska (-17.5) vs. Northwestern, Saturday 3:30 PM.
What a surprise it was to see Nebraska dominate Michigan State last week. Okay, Sparty's not a team to be trusted on the road, especially after a big win, but still. Rex Burkhead ran for 134 yards and three touchdowns against a stout Michigan State defense, and Nebraska held the Spartans to just 187 yards of total offense. Now in a three-way tie atop the Big Ten's Legends Division, Nebraska needs to beat a struggling Northwestern squad to keep pace with the Michigan schools. The Wildcats have the offense to play spoiler, but the defense is pathetic.
Pick: Nebraska 38, Northwestern 21

13. Houston (-28) @ UAB, Saturday 7:00 PM.
Sorry, UAB.
Pick: Houston 64, UAB 17

14. Michigan (-4) @ Iowa, Saturday 12:00 PM.
I felt pretty good about Iowa as a sleeper in the Big Ten, especially after wins over Northwestern and Indiana had the Hawkeyes at 2-1 in conference play. A visit to punchless Minnesota should have been an easy W, but somehow Iowa found a way to lose. So what's next? Last week's loss had to be deflating, but Iowa frequently defies logic. The Hawkeyes could either win a close one against Michigan or get blown out. Given the Wolverines' 8th ranked rushing offense and 7th ranked scoring defense, I'll lean toward the latter.
Pick: Michigan 34, Iowa 21

15. Penn State BYE

16. Michigan State (-28) vs. Minnesota, Saturday 12:00 PM.
As I've said in past weeks, Minnesota is a good team to face to break out of a slump and get the team back on the same page (sorry, Iowa). Michigan State's batteries could use some recharging after last week's disappointing loss to Nebraska. Kirk Cousins especially needs a solid outing after passing for just 86 yards with a pick last week. The 107th ranked pass efficiency defense on the opposite side of the line of scrimmage should be a welcome sight. Minnesota struggles in every category, except apparently the coveted Beating Iowa category (sorry again, Iowa), so this should be nothing more than an opportunity for Mark Dantonio's bunch to regroup before heading to, you guessed it, Iowa.
Pick: Michigan State 36, Minnesota 10

17. Wisconsin (-25.5) vs. Purdue, Saturday 3:30 PM.
What in the hell happened to Wisconsin? I had a feeling there might be some letdown last week after its stunning loss to Michigan State, but to lose on another Hail Mary pass to Ohio State? That's like recovering from a stomach punch just in time for a kick to the groin. I guess that's what happens when you crush horrible teams at home for six straight weeks then have to get on the bus and play legitimate teams. Did I just call Ohio State legitimate? Gross. So why is the line as high as it is? Well, maybe it's because the last time Wisconsin lost consecutive games (October 7th and 14th of 2009), it beat Purdue 37-0 the following week. Vegas likes trends and things like that, so you never know. The Boilermakers have looked downright feisty at times this year, putting a scare into Penn State and beating Illinois, but last week's loss at Michigan was not encouraging. Wisconsin needs a win badly and should bounce back in a big way.
Pick: Wisconsin 41, Purdue 17

19. Arizona State (-9.5) @ UCLA, Saturday 7:30 PM.
Let's go ahead and call this one the Pac-12 South Title Game. I know I'm jumping the gun a little bit, but take a look at the standings. Go ahead, look. I'll still be here when you get back. Utah, Arizona and Colorado all have at least four losses and are all but eliminated from title contention. USC is in a tie for second at 3-2 but is ineligible for postseason play. That leaves us with 4-1 Arizona State and 3-2 UCLA. Brock Osweiler (who desperately needs a good nickname) leads the country's 22nd ranked scoring offense to UCLA to face a Bruins team that was inexplicably blown out by Arizona two weeks ago. UCLA's pass defense isn't great (nor is it's run D), so I'm expecting a high-scoring affair. If the Bruins can get significant contributions in the run game and eat up clock, they've got a great shot.
Pick: Arizona State 34, UCLA 24

20. Georgia (-34) vs. New Mexico State, Saturday 12:30 PM.
Georgia may have wrapped up the SEC East by beating Florida last week. The Bulldogs are tied with South Carolina for first. The Gamecocks own the tiebreaker, but Georgia's closing conference schedule is FAR easier. But first, New Mexico State comes to Athens. The Aggies are absolutely atrocious against the run, so it shouldn't matter that Georgia will be without four running backs due to injury and suspension. A WAC over SEC upset isn't unfeasible (we almost had one at the beginning of the season), but don't expect it to happen. Georgia has won six straight and is as hot as anyone. I'm not sure what a win over New Mexico State would do for momentum, but Georgia will take it - as long as it isn't looking ahead to next week's rivalry game against Auburn.
Pick: Georgia 41, New Mexico State 10

21. Georgia Tech BYE

22. USC (-21.5) @ Colorado, Friday 9:00 PM.
Who better to see on the field the Saturday after losing a triple overtime heart breaker to Stanford? Slump Buster Buffaloes to the rescue! Colorado is all kinds of awful. That's all that needs to be said.
Pick: USC 44, Colorado 17

Lane Kiffin feels that he was deceived by officials last week. If he wasn't then, he's all but assured that he will be in the future.

23. Cincinnati (-2.5) @ Pittsburgh, Saturday 7:00 PM
I've called Cincinnati the worst one loss team in the country on several occasions, mostly because of their pathetic schedule. But hey, 6-1 is 6-1, right? Statistically, the Bearcats are pretty impressive. They rank in the top 10 nationally in scoring offense, rushing defense, turnover margin, sacks and tackles for loss. You've got to like numbers like that against 4-4 Pitt. For the Panthers to win, they'll need to take advantage of Cincinnati's weak pass defense. Tino Sunseri torched Connecticut for 419 yards and two scores last week, but that's the exception rather than the rule. He's already been sacked 35 times this year, and senior running back Ray Graham went down with a knee injury against UConn.
Pick: Cincinnati 28, Pittsburgh 24

24. Southern Miss (-9) @ East Carolina, Saturday 4:00 PM.
First place in Conference USA's East Division is on the line Saturday at Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium. Both teams are 3-1 in conference play, a half game ahead of Marshall. Both teams have explosive offenses (USM's is more balanced), but Southern Miss has the advantage defensively. East Carolina seems to be hitting its stride after a rough slate of games out of conference to open the season, but the Pirates turn it over a little too much for my liking.
Pick: Southern Miss 44, East Carolina 30

25. West Virginia (-13.5) vs. Louisville, Saturday 12:00 PM.
Offense (West Virginia) meets defense (Louisville). Consider these match-ups: #13 total offense vs. #12 total defense, #15 scoring offense vs. #11 scoring defense. Something's gotta give, right? The difference for me lies in each team's weakness. West Virginia has proven it can make stops when needed, though usually only for half the game, a problem the Mountaineers still haven't corrected. Louisville lacks a pulse offensively, so the Cardinals are going to need to dominate the field position and turnover categories to win. Don't count on it; West Virginia has a Big East title race to get back into.
Pick: West Virginia 30, Louisville 16

Week 9 Straight Up: 13-5
Season Straight Up: 150-31
Week 9 ATS: 6-11-1
Season ATS: 86-79-4

Here are a few BCS basics for the fans who may not be aware.
-The top 2 ranked teams in the BCS standings will meet for the National Championship in New Orleans, Louisiana.
-The winners of the Big Ten and Pac Twelve will meet in the Rose Bowl, barring neither is ranked in the top 2 and playing for the NC.
-The SEC champion will play in the Sugar Bowl, barring the team is not ranked in the top 2 and playing for the NC.
-The Big XII champion will play in the Fiesta Bowl, barring the team is not ranked in the top 2 and playing for the NC.
-The ACC champion will play in the Orange Bowl, barring the team is not ranked in the top 2 and playing for the NC.
-The BCS bowl losing the #1 ranked team in the BCS standings will get the first at-large selection while the BCS bowl losing the #2 ranked team in the BCS standings will get the second at-large selection. Please note that the bowl losing the #1 ranked team is NOT allowed to select an at-large from the same conference as the #2 ranked team per BCS selection rules. For example, in this past seasons BCS standings, the Sugar Bowl would not be allowed to select Stanford to replace Auburn because Stanford is in the same conference as the #2 ranked team.
-The remaining selection order for the 2012 BCS games is; Fiesta, Sugar, and Orange.


The Rose Bowl
January 2, 2012- Pasadena, California
(11-2) Wisconsin vs Stanford (12-1)
Wisconsin losses: at Michigan State, at Ohio State
Stanford loss: vs Notre Dame

-Despite crushing defeats in back to back games, Wisconsin is still the class of the Big Ten and will run the table and win the first ever Big Ten Championship Game in Indianapolis.
-National primtime game. Notre Dame, Andrew Luck, and unbeaten Stanford. A win puts them into the NC game. It's too good to be true for Cardinal fans.

Prediction: Stanford 38, Wisconsin 31


The Sugar Bowl
January 3, 2012- New Orleans, Louisiana
(11-1) Louisiana State vs Boise State (12-0)
LSU loss: at Alabama
-LSU has the most talent in the country and their game at Tuscaloosa in November really should be the national title game. But that's the problem: In Tuscaloosa. I really don't see any way LSU wins that game against the unflappable Nick Saban and Alabama.
-After years of dominating seasons, Boise finally gets its shot against a national powerhouse. A statement game for SR Kellen Moore which could put the smurf haters and doubters to rest.

Prediction: LSU 34, Boise State 7


The Orange Bowl
January 4, 2012- Miami, Florida
(11-2) Clemson vs West Virginia (10-2)
Clemson losses: at Georgia Tech, at South Carolina
West Virginia losses: vs LSU, at Syracuse
-Could this really be the year for Clemson? Fans may have higher expectations but winning the ACC and going to the Orange Bowl will be huge for this program. I see them splitting head-to-head games with Georgia Tech, with Clemson winning the rematch for the ACC title.
-West Virginia's offense has been potent at times but really off at others. That hit and miss didn't cut it against LSU but it will be more than enough to sleepwalk through the Big East schedule.

Prediction: Clemson 48, West Virginia 38


The Fiesta Bowl
January 5, 2012- Glendale, Arizona
(10-2) Oklahoma vs Oregon (10-2)
Oklahoma losses: vs Texas Tech, at Oklahoma State
Oregon losses: vs LSU, at Stanford
-I see Oklahoma losing at Oklahoma State to finish out their season. It's going to be a tough pill to swallow for Sooner fans but this is still a national program that the Fiesta Bowl won't hesitate to invite.
-Like Boise, a put up or shut up game awaits Oregon in Glendale. Dominating regular seasons have led to losses to Ohio State and Auburn the past two seasons and Oklahoma should be favored in this one.

Prediction: Oregon 36, Oklahoma 31


BCS National Championship Game
January 9, 2012- New Orleans, Louisiana
(13-0) Alabama vs Oklahoma State (12-0)
-I am projecting Alabama will run the table and finish the regular season 12-0 for the 3rd time in 4 seasons. Absolutely remarkable job by the unflappable Nick Saban. The road to New Orleans won't be easy however. After the game of the year with LSU, the Tide finish SEC play off with road games in Starkville and Auburn.
-The Bedlam game lost a lot of its national appeal when Oklahoma decided to, well be Oklahoma, and folded at home against Texas Tech. With that said, Oklahoma still has a shot to ruin the Cowboys NC dreams. I project that won't be happening.

Prediction: Alabama 38, Oklahoma State 14



Others in the BCS picture:
Nebraska (11-2)
Arkansas (10-2)
Virginia Tech (10-2)
Houston (13-0)

I think we all were waiting for a week when the national championship herd was thinned out a little bit and some unbeatens fell. Well, how did last week work out for you? I thought that Wisconsin/Michigan State was as good of a Game of the Week candidate as any, and it didn't disappoint. Former South Carolina defensive back Mark Dantonio knows a thing or two about thrilling finishes, with last year's overtime Little Giants win over Notre Dame and last week's Rocket to beat Wisconsin. While all that was going on, there may have been a little bit of divine intervention in Norman, Oklahoma. Saturday night's Texas Tech/Oklahoma game should have been played at the same time, but an extensive lightning delay pushed the game back far enough for the entire nation to watch. Saturday nights don't get much better than that. So, who might be on upset watch this week? Take a look at my Top 25 for the week and see for yourself.

1. Alabama BYE

2. LSU BYE

3. Stanford (-8) @ 22. USC, Saturday 8:00 PM.
Well, Andrew Luck, it looks like the dream is over. Carolina's win over the Washington Redskins on Sunday was #2 on the season, and it all but eliminated any hope of the Panthers tanking this season to draft you #1 overall out of spite. So I guess now I can talk a little about Stanford football. How much greater would this match-up be if Jim Harbaugh were still at the helm in Palo Alto? The press conferences alone by he and Lane Kiffin would be one of the highlights of the season. But with Harbaugh in San Francisco, we'll just have to settle for one of the best games of the year in the Pac-12. The Trojans are riding high after their lone loss of the season at Arizona State, but the teams on their current winning streak (Arizona, Cal, Notre Dame) are at least a tier or two beneath the Cardinal. Stanford is a statistician's dream - except for the pass defense. If you weren't already aware, Matt Barkley and Robert Woods are the best QB/WR tandem outside of Clemson, SC. But will that be enough? USC's run game will have to be productive against a Stanford defense that yields just over 75 yards per game on the ground. Though the Trojans aren't eligible for postseason play, they can certainly play spoiler on Saturday night. Unfortunately for Lane Kiffin and company, I think they fall just short.
Pick: Stanford 34, USC 31

4. Oklahoma State (-14) vs. Baylor, Saturday 3:30 PM.
Bedlam lost a little luster last Saturday, but I don't think Oklahoma State minds. Oklahoma's loss to Texas Tech means the annual rivalry game won't feature two unbeatens, but it still could be a national title qualifier for the Cowboys. Of course, Mike Gundy's crew has to keep winning. Robert Griffin III and Baylor were the lovable upstarts at the beginning of the season but have faded to the background after being nipped by Kansas State and embarrassed by Texas A&M. The best way to get back onto the front page? Knock off an undefeated national championship contender. RG3 is back at the top of the passing efficiency rankings, but he's going to need help from his defense. Oklahoma State is returning home after a couple of road wins at Texas and Missouri, but the Cowboys can't get caught looking ahead to a difficult closing stretch. Baylor's winless outside of Waco, and that should continue.
Pick: Oklahoma State 56, Baylor 35

5. Clemson (-5) @ Georgia Tech, Saturday 8:00 PM.
How exciting was this match-up two weeks ago? Both teams were undefeated and looking like the clear favorites in the ACC. Clemson held up its end of the deal, but Georgia Tech did not, losing back to back roadies to Virginia and Miami, the latter a blowout in which the Yellow Jackets only managed 211 yards of offense. It seems like a lot of people are waiting for Clemson to have its Clemson moment and come crashing back down to Earth, but it won't happen on Saturday. I know, Clemson's last 8-0 start (2000) ended with a home loss to Georgia Tech, but that's nothing more than a cute statistic. Unless the Yellow Jackets of September show up, Clemson should roll.
Pick: Clemson 51, Georgia Tech 24

6. Boise State BYE

7. Oregon (-37) vs. Washington State, Saturday 3:00 PM.
Big shocker, Chip Kelly is still being a cryptic bum in regards to the playing status of LaMichael James and Darron Thomas. I know he has his reasons, but frankly it's a big pain in the ass. This isn't the Royal Rumble where fans anxiously wait to see who's coming out of the locker room next. Just let us know if the guys are playing, Chip. You're not gaining that much of a competitive edge by keeping Washington State in the dark. One player whose status is not in jeopardy is Cliff Harris, who was suspended once again for driving with a suspended license. Marshall Lobbestael is back in the saddle for the Cougars, but it's really not important; I just wanted to type the guy's name.
Pick: Oregon 65, Washington State 20

8. Michigan State (+4) @ 15. Nebraska, Saturday 12:00 PM.
This is a tough one to pick. It's hard to guess if Michigan State will be riding high after its thrilling victory over Wisconsin or if there might be a letdown. Sparty has been known to drop a game or two on the road, which makes this even tougher. So, too, does the unpredictable nature of Cornhuskers quarterback Taylor Martinez. A Nebraska win would throw a wrench into the Legends Division title chase, but when in doubt I side with defense, and there are very few I'd take over Michigan State's right now.
Pick: Michigan State 30, Nebraska 24

9. Wisconsin (-8) @ Ohio State, Saturday 8:00 PM.
I'm not sure I can fathom how Wisconsin fans feel after Saturday night's stunning loss. I mean, I've seen my fair share of disappointing, how-the-hell-did-they-do-that losses as a South Carolina fan, but never as a national championship contender. So how do the Badgers bounce back? Well, a down Ohio State squad could adequately play the role of slump buster. A convincing prime time victory would go a long way toward helping Wisconsin climb back up the rankings after inexplicably dropping seven spots in the AP poll, a spot behind Oklahoma. Yeah, I don't get it, either.
Pick: Wisconsin 34, Ohio State 17

10. Arkansas (-11) @ Vanderbilt, Saturday 12:21 PM.
Arkansas got off to another slow start last Saturday, narrowly avoiding a loss to Ole Miss in the Point And Laugh At Houston Nutt Game of the Week. Eventually, the Razorbacks are going to fall into too deep of a hole early and not be able to dig themselves out. It likely won't happen against Vanderbilt, though. The Commodores built on the momentum gained during their moral victory against Georgia by blasting Army, but they just don't have the offensive firepower to keep up with Arkansas, even if the Hogs take the first half off.
Pick: Arkansas 37, Vanderbilt 21

11. Kansas State (+14) vs. 12. Oklahoma, Saturday 3:30 PM.
I have a feeling we're about to see Angry Dad Bob Stoops. When Oklahoma loses football games, Stoops becomes the dad who has lost to his son in a game of driveway hoops for the first time and then unleashes his fury in subsequent games, delivering brutal beatings while battering his son's psyche. Since 2009, the Sooners have lost seven (not counting last week) regular season games. In the week following each loss, Oklahoma won by 64, 26, 22, 55, 27, 33, and 38 points. On Saturday afternoon in Manhattan, Kansas State joins that list. Enjoy your win, Texas Tech, because you just ruined things for the whole family.
Pick: Oklahoma 47, Kansas State 21

No fanbase produces better disappointed photo ops than Oklahoma.

13. South Carolina (-4) @ Tennessee, Saturday 7:15 PM.
Apparently, the quarterback controversy at South Carolina didn't provide enough drama. On Saturday, the Gamecocks begin life post-Lattimore in Knoxville. I don't think I have to explain to anyone that that's bad news. Tennessee appears to also be starting a new era with true freshman quarterback Justin Worley getting the start. He provides the element of the unknown (well, as much as a kid who played high school ball in SC can) that could keep Ellis Johnson's defense off-balance. Even if that is the case, you have to expect South Carolina's defensive ball hawks to make a play or two; the Gamecocks are tied for 2nd in the nation with 24 takeaways. With two slumping offenses taking the field Saturday night, don't be surprised if a defensive or special teams score is the difference.
Pick: South Carolina 20, Tennessee 13

14. Virginia Tech (-16) @ Duke, Saturday 12:30 PM.
Georgia Tech's recent slump has the Hokies back on top of the ACC Coastal Division and on track for a re-match with Clemson. Virginia Tech still has work to do to get there, but don't expect this week to be a speed bump. After all, it's basketball season in Durham. Duke's defense has been dreadful against the pass this year, so Logan Thomas should have another solid game. If not, the Hokies still have David Wilson, the nation's first 1,000 yard running back.
Pick: Virginia Tech 31, Duke 7

16. Houston (-28) vs. Rice, Thursday 8:00 PM.
Rice is bad. Like, obscenely bad. Well, maybe not as bad as it looked last week (image below), but close. Where Rice struggles, Houston thrives. Case Keenum is five passing touchdowns away from Graham Harrell's all-time NCAA record, and he may eclipse it on Thursday night. This one will get ugly.
Pick: Houston 53, Rice 24

17. Michigan (-14) vs. Purdue, Saturday 12:00 PM.
I guess I'll use this space to give Purdue some props before ripping them. Last week, I wondered why Illinois wasn't a huge favorite over the Boilermakers. Well, now I know. It's hard to tell if a team that wins close games week after week is a team that will always find a way to win or a team that flies too close to the sun. Illinois was obviously the latter, with Purdue applying the last bit of heat to the Illini's wax wings. Okay, now that that's out of the way, Purdue is still not a good football team. Michigan needs to win to keep pace in a Legends Division that could get very interesting soon, and a win is what it will get.
Pick: Michigan 34, Purdue 24

18. Texas A&M (-12) vs. Missouri, Saturday 12:00 PM.
Don't look now, but Texas A&M is lurking just behind the Big XII leaders. The Aggies are 3-1 in conference play and will have an opportunity to get right back into the race. This is yet another Big XII game with shootout potential, and again, I don't have a clue how a James Franklin-led offense puts up the numbers that it does. Maybe he's learned how to throw anything near the sidelines since I saw him last, but I doubt it. Look for the Aggies to win in a match-up of the newest (or not, who knows these days?) members of the SEC.
Pick: Texas A&M 44, Missouri 31

19. Texas Tech (-15) vs. Iowa State, Saturday 7:00 PM.
Okay, so maybe I haven't learned my lesson with Texas Tech yet. Last week, I didn't even consider a potential Red Raiders upset of Oklahoma because they had burned me the two weeks before when I picked them to knock off ranked opponents. Texas Tech responded by torching Oklahoma's defense and narrowly escaping with a huge win in Norman. Despite the losing streak in my picks, I feel pretty confident about this one. Iowa State's defense is flat out awful, so Texas Tech won't need to duplicate last week's Herculean (that's probably overdoing it, but seeing Oklahoma lose is just delightful) feat to come out on top.
Pick: Texas Tech 45, Iowa State 28

20. Penn State (-5) vs. Illinois, Saturday 3:30 PM.
Illinois was the surprise story in the Big Ten just two weeks ago, having opened the season with six consecutive wins to claim a share of the Leaders Division lead. After losses to Ohio State and Purdue, Illinois has been replaced by Penn State. The Nittany Lions have put together a six game win streak of their own and currently sit alone atop the division. Will JoePa be Zookered on Saturday? Does JoePa even know what that means? I'm answering "no" to both of those.
Pick: Penn State 27, Illinois 21

21. Arizona State (-31) vs. Colorado, Saturday 6:30 PM.
The Pac-12's first season will be a year to forget for Colorado. The Buffaloes are 0-4 in conference play (really 0-5, but their September 10th loss to Cal was a non-conference game), losing by an average of 29 points per game. On the flip side of the coin is Arizona State. The Sun Devils are in control of a weak Pac-12 South and can take a huge step toward clinching with wins Saturday and next week against UCLA. Colorado, much like Minnesota and Kentucky in their respective conferences, exists only to strengthen its opponents this season by repeatedly being blown out.
Pick: Arizona State 45, Colorado 17

23. Cincinnati BYE

24. Georgia (-3) vs. Florida, Saturday 3:30 PM in Jacksonville, FL.
It looks like John Brantley will be back at quarterback for Florida on Saturday. While his return will obviously help in the passing game, it will also aid the Gators' rushing attack tremendously. With a legitimate threat to pass the ball under center, Georgia's defense won't be able to focus entirely on stopping the run. At this point for Florida, any news is good news. The Gators have lost three straight games in conference play and would have zero chance of reaching the SEC Championship Game with a loss. Will that be motivation enough to beat Georgia? It's hard to find a team with more positive momentum than the Bulldogs right now. Georgia has won five straight games after starting the season 0-2. Sure, they haven't beaten anyone decent, but wins are wins, and the Bulldogs are sitting pretty in the SEC East right now. Recent history favors Florida; the present favors Georgia.
Pick: Georgia 24, Florida 20

25. Southern Miss (-10) @ UTEP, Saturday 8:00 PM.

Week 8 Straight Up: 14-5
Season Straight Up: 137-26
Week 8 ATS: 7-12
Season ATS: 80-68-3

Title Game:
LSU vs. Clemson

Rose Bowl Game:
Nebraska vs. Oregon

Sugar Bowl:
Alabama vs. West Virginia

Orange Bowl:
Wisconsin vs. Boise State

Fiesta Bowl:
Oklahoma State vs. Stanford

Let's face it....it seems like the stars will align for Clemson to face LSU in New Orleans. It's crazy to even think that right now but its going to happen...A Big Ten team will end up in the Orange Bowl, but it will be a toss-up between runner-up Wisconsin, Michigan State, Penn State and Michigan....Oregon will knock off Stanford, who will go to Glendale to play Okie Lite.....Alabama gets to New Orleans with one loss to face...ta-da! the BCS Team nobody wants to select...the Big East Champion which will be West V by default....Boise gets in, but the question will be whether the Orange or Fiesta will take them...Nebraska will recover from its flop to Wisconsin and win the title game rematch in Indy....Okie Lite takes home to the Big 12, but loses to either blOwU or aTm along the way.

Bye weeks are kind of fun, don't you think? After seven (well, six...thanks, Kentucky!) mostly stressful games, South Carolina's finally got a Saturday off, which means that I can spend the entire day watching football without a feeling of impending doom. Oh wait, I've still got that sick feeling in my stomach over Marcus Lattimore's knee injury. See? The fun never ends. Enroll today, kids! Ligament and cartilage damage will sideline Lattimore for the rest of the season and, football allegiances aside, I absolutely hate that it happened to such a class act, a sentiment shared by many. This Saturday, I'll watch all of your teams while you feel those same feelings I usually feel, and will enjoy not having to bang my head against the wall in frustration. If I do, it will be because of this week's picks. As always, here is the top 25 I submitted for the Official FVSports Top 25 Poll along with the weekend forecast.

1. Alabama (-29) vs. Tennessee, Saturday 7:15 PM.
Prior to the Tyler Bray and Justin Hunter injuries, I might have liked Tennessee to make a ballgame out of this one. Weird things happen in rivalry games, so it may still happen. I don't expect it to, however, because Tennessee needs to be able to run the ball to be successful. Lining up opposite the Volunteers Saturday night is the nation's top run defense. Good luck.
Pick: Alabama 41, Tennessee 14

2. LSU (-22.5) vs. 22. Auburn, Saturday 3:30 PM.
The Barrett Trotter experiment at Auburn appears to be over with Clint Moseley making his first career start at quarterback. Facing LSU's stout defense is a daunting task for any signal caller, but the suspensions of Therold Simon and Tyrann Mathieu should make Moseley's debut a little easier. Combine that with the absence of running back Spencer Ware, also suspended, and you've got to like Auburn to keep it competitive. This has been one of college football's most exciting rivalries over the last decade, so I wouldn't be terribly surprised to see a close contest, but this year's Auburn team is a tough one to figure out. LSU had little trouble with backup quarterbacks Jacoby Brissett of Florida and Matt Simms of Tennessee, and I don't expect the third time to be the charm for the opposition.
Pick: LSU 30, Auburn 21

3. Oklahoma (-29) vs. Texas Tech, Saturday 8:00 PM.
I know it might be a little frustrating for Oklahoma fans to see their team fall in some polls and tread water in others while winning big every week, but their patience will be rewarded after November 5th when Alabama and LSU square off. In the meantime, sit tight Sooner fans; no one you face before then will give you any difficulty whatsoever. I've learned my lesson with Texas Tech after unsuccessfully picking the Red Raiders to upset ranked opponents the last two weeks. Not this time.
Pick: Oklahoma 51, Texas Tech 20

4. Wisconsin (-8.5) @ 14. Michigan State, Saturday 8:00 PM.
This is as good of a Game of the Week candidate as any. Wisconsin has absolutely steamrolled every team on its schedule so far, but the Badgers have dominated almost entirely at home against complete nobodies (and Nebraska). Michigan State has quietly accumulated a 5-1 record behind a suffocating defense and appears to be the class of the Big Ten's Legends division. They meet Saturday night in East Lansing, the site of last year's Michigan State victory over Wisconsin, the Badgers' last conference loss. Bret Bielema seems like the type of guy to hold a grudge, so I've got to take Wisconsin despite my infatuation with Sparty's defense.
Pick: Wisconsin 31, Michigan State 20

5. Stanford (-20.5) vs. 21. Washington, Saturday 8:00 PM.
I'm sure you saw or heard about the Panthers loss to the Falcons on Sunday, Andrew Luck. We Panthers fans don't particularly like for that to happen. Just something to think about.
Pick: Stanford 38, Washington 21

6. Boise State (-31) vs. Air Force, Saturday 3:30 PM.
Now we're talking. Boise State will play its first Mountain West home game against Air Force. The only part of this game I would consider being even close to significant is that the Broncos aren't allowed, by conference rule, to wear their all blue uniforms on their blue home turf. That's seriously it. Maybe their defenders won't blend into their surroundings now, making it a little easier to throw the ball against them. Oh wait, they're playing Air Force. Never mind.
Pick: Boise State 58, Air Force 24


7. Oklahoma State (-7) @ Missouri, Saturday 12:00 PM.
I would like to see Oklahoma State stop someone, anyone, before I move them up any further in the rankings. That likely won't happen this weekend when they Cowboys head to Columbia. Missouri is piling up yards and points at a breakneck pace (don't ask me how), so this should be an entertaining Big XII battle.
Pick: Oklahoma State 41, Missouri 30


8. Clemson (-10.5) vs. North Carolina, Saturday 12:00 PM.
Admit it. You thought Clemson was going to pull a Clemson last week. Down 18 at Maryland, it certainly seemed like a possibility. Then something strange happen. Rather than complete the annual choke, the Tigers stormed back and pulled out a big ACC road win. The Terrapins showed very little interest in slowing down Clemson's offense, but North Carolina might. The Tar Heels have some weapons on offense, but not nearly enough to keep up in Death Valley.
Pick: Clemson 27, North Carolina 20

9. Oregon (-32.5) @ Colorado, Saturday 3:30 PM.
It's hard to be optimistic when two of your star players are hurt, but at least Oregon fans can look at this week's match-up with Colorado as an opportunity to rest LaMichael James and Darron Thomas. Chip Kelly won't say anything about their playing status (who do you think you're fooling, Chip?) but I wouldn't expect either to play. And again, with Colorado on the opposing sideline, neither player's presence will be necessary. The Ducks should just lean on Kenjon Barner and De'Anthony Thomas. Colorado, also missing some key players, won't be able to score enough.
Pick: Oregon 48, Colorado 13

10. Arkansas (-17) @ Mississippi, Saturday 12:21 PM.
This won't be pretty. Arkansas has an explosive offense that ranks among the nation's best, while Ole Miss has a porous defense that sits near the bottom of the SEC and NCAA statistically. That's about as bad of a match-up as Ole Miss could ask for.
Pick: Arkansas 45, Mississippi 17

11. West Virginia (-13.5) @ Syracuse, Friday 8:00 PM.
If this is a Joe Tessitore Special, and I assume it has to be given that its on Friday night, we could be in for a wild game. Nearly everything Tess touches turns into gold, which could spell great things for the Orange. Syracuse has been king of the close game so far this season, with three games needing at least one overtime. Two others were decided in regulation by one score. Unfortunately for Syracuse, revenge trumps all of that, and that's exactly what the Mountaineers are looking for after losing to the Orange a year ago.
Pick: West Virginia 34, Syracuse 16

12. Kansas State (-11) @ Kansas, Saturday 12:00 PM.
The disrespect of Kansas State continues. The Wildcats are 6-0 and have a share of the Big XII lead yet are barely favored by double digits against a dreadful Kansas squad. Last year's edition of this rivalry was a 59-7 Kansas State win. A similar result this year wouldn't shocking, especially since the Jayhwaks have lost their last four games by over 31 points per contest.
Pick: Kansas State 51, Kansas 17

13. South Carolina BYE

15. Virginia Tech (-21) vs. Boston College, Saturday 3:30 PM.
The Hokies have appeared to right the ship after a 23-3 loss to Clemson three weeks ago. Virginia Tech bounced back with a last minute win over Miami the following Saturday, then beat a surging Wake Forest (don't laugh) team by three touchdowns a week ago. Quarterback Logan Thomas was impressive in the two victories, throwing for 590 yards and five touchdowns - and no interceptions. Junior running back David Wilson continues to rack up yardage and will look to record his fifth consecutive 100 yard game. Boston College was in a similar situation record-wise last season before winning out and making a bowl game, but this year's team is too banged up for me to think it can play spoiler.
Pick: Virginia Tech 28, Boston College 6

16. Nebraska (-25) @ Minnesota, Saturday 3:30 PM.
Minnesota is having an absolutely dreadful season, but this is still a big game for Nebraska. The Cornhuskers are 1-1 in Big Ten play, a game behind Michigan State in the Legends division. The Spartans visit Camp Randall this week to take on conference favorite Wisconsin, so there's the potential for a big swing at the top of the division. Unfortunately for the Cornhuskers, Saturday will be their first game without Jared Crick, the star defensive lineman who will miss the remainder of the season after surgery to repair a torn pectoral muscle. The Golden Gophers are playing the role of punching bag in the Big Ten this year, so this Saturday will be an excellent opportunity for Nebraska to work out some kinks (especially in its run defense) before a huge clash with Michigan State on October 29th.
Pick: Nebraska 42, Minnesota 14

17. Houston (-20.5) vs. Marshall, Saturday 4:30 PM.
Yes, Case Keenum is still Houston's quarterback. It seems as if he's been there since the David Klingler era, but it's somehow only been six years. Speaking of Klingler, the Cougars are 6-0 for the first time since his 1990 team opened the season with eight consecutive victories en route to a 10-1 record. These Cougars appear poised to achieve similar success as Keenum closes in on some of Timmy Chang's all-time NCAA passing records. Marshall's defensive weakness? Stopping the pass. The Thundering Herd are allowing 230 pass yards per game, 73rd in the nation. Expect that number to rise just slightly on Saturday.
Pick: Houston 58, Marshall 20

18. Georgia Tech @ Miami (-2.5), Saturday 3:30 PM.
Georgia Tech must be cursed in Charlottesville. Despite boatloads of momentum and offensive firepower, the Yellow Jackets lost at Virginia last week for the ninth time in their last ten trips. If it's not a curse and a deeper problem exists, it will show itself this weekend at Miami. Good Jacory Harris gave Bad Jacory Harris wrong directions to Chapel Hill last week, and the Hurricanes knocked off North Carolina. Georgia Tech still leads the ACC Coastal division, but Miami could really shake things up and join the title hunt with a win on Saturday.
Pick: Georgia Tech 31, Miami 27

19. Illinois (-4.5) @ Purdue, Saturday 12:00 PM.
I know the Illini looked abysmal last week in a 17-7 loss to Ohio State, but this is Purdue we're talking about here. The teams appear to be pretty evenly matched, and Illinois has made a habit of playing down to its opposition at times this season, but I expect the Illini's defense to clamp down on Purdue's run game. The Boilermakers are rushing for just over 200 yards per game while Illinois is allowing just under 100. Something's got to give. Should the run game stall, Purdue will need quarterback Caleb TerBush to make plays. He struggled last week in a loss to Penn State, and I don't expect things to be much easier against Illinois.
Pick: Illinois 30, Purdue 20

20. Michigan BYE

23. Texas A&M (-20.5) @ Iowa State, Saturday 3:30 PM.
Remember how excited we got about Iowa State's 3-0 start to the season? Three straight Big XII losses have completely erased that, and a fourth in a row could be on the way. The Cyclones turned the ball over eight times in those three losses, and though the Aggies have only recorded four takeaways this season, they pressure the quarterback as good as anyone, racking up 4.33 sacks per game, tops in the country. A&M's offense is firing on all cylinders right now, and Iowa State's been giving up huge chunks of yardage on the ground. The Cyclones will have to attack Ryan Tannehill to pull off the upset.
Pick: Texas A&M 44, Iowa State 24

24. Penn State (-4) @ Northwestern, Saturday 7:00 PM.
Dan Persa's return to Northwestern hasn't been as successful as I thought it would be. The senior quarterback missed the first three games of the season recovering from last season's Achilles tear, making his first start of the year on October 1st against Illinois. The Wildcats are 0-3 with Persa under center, also dropping games to Michigan and at Iowa. The struggles could continue this weekend against Penn State. The Nittany Lions have one of the nation's top defenses this season and have quietly won their first three Big Ten games. A mediocre Penn State offense should see some success against a Northwestern defense that hasn't shown the ability to stop anybody so far.
Pick: Penn State 27, Northwestern 17

25. Arizona State BYE

Week 7 Straight Up: 13-5
Season Straight Up: 123-21
Week 7 ATS: 11-7
Season ATS: 73-56-3

Here are a few BCS basics for the fans who may not be aware.
-The top 2 ranked teams in the BCS standings will meet for the National Championship in New Orleans, Louisiana.
-The winners of the Big Ten and Pac Twelve will meet in the Rose Bowl, barring neither is ranked in the top 2 and playing for the NC.
-The SEC champion will play in the Sugar Bowl, barring the team is not ranked in the top 2 and playing for the NC.
-The Big XII champion will play in the Fiesta Bowl, barring the team is not ranked in the top 2 and playing for the NC.
-The ACC champion will play in the Orange Bowl, barring the team is not ranked in the top 2 and playing for the NC.
-The BCS bowl losing the #1 ranked team in the BCS standings will get the first at-large selection while the BCS bowl losing the #2 ranked team in the BCS standings will get the second at-large selection. Please note that the bowl losing the #1 ranked team is NOT allowed to select an at-large from the same conference as the #2 ranked team per BCS selection rules. For example, in this past seasons BCS standings, the Sugar Bowl would not be allowed to select Stanford to replace Auburn because Stanford is in the same conference as the #2 ranked team.
-The remaining selection order for the 2012 BCS games is; Fiesta, Sugar, and Orange.


The Rose Bowl
January 2, 2012- Pasadena, California
(12-1) Wisconsin vs Oregon (12-1)
Wisconsin loss: at Illinois
Oregon loss: vs LSU

-Despite the ESPN love for Bucky there are flaws on both sides of the ball and I see those flaws being exploited against the Fighting Illini. The only reason Illinois doesn't get here is because in typical Zook fashion they lose at Penn State and in the shocker of the year at Minnesota.
-Oregon is just being Oregon. They'll run through the Pac-12 again including wins over Stanford and surging Washington. But once again we'll be left shaking our heads when Oregon has to face a decent OOC opponent and loses its 3rd straight BCS game.

The Sugar Bowl
January 3, 2012- New Orleans, Louisiana
(11-1) Louisiana State vs Notre Dame (10-2)
LSU loss: at Alabama
Notre Dame losses: vs South Florida, at Michigan

-LSU has the most talent in the country and their game at Tuscaloosa in November really should be the national title game. But that's the problem: In Tuscaloosa. I really don't see any way LSU wins that game against the unflappable Nick Saban and Alabama.
-After being written for dead, Notre Dame is now 4-2 and on fire. A weak 2nd half schedule sees one legitimate test which I think they will pass when they fly out west and beat Andrew Luck and Stanford.

The Orange Bowl
January 4, 2012- Miami, Florida
(11-2) Clemson vs West Virginia (10-2)
Clemson losses: at Georgia Tech, at South Carolina
West Virginia losses: vs LSU, at South Florida

-Could this really be the year for Clemson? Fans may have higher expectations but winning the ACC and going to the Orange Bowl will be huge for this program. I see them splitting head-to-head games with Georgia Tech, with Clemson winning the rematch for the ACC title.
-West Virginia's offense has been potent at times but really off at others. That hit and miss didn't cut it against LSU but it will be more than enough to sleepwalk through the Big East schedule.

The Fiesta Bowl
January 5, 2012- Glendale, Arizona
(11-1) Oklahoma vs Boise State (12-0)
Oklahoma loss: at Oklahoma State

-I see Oklahoma losing at Oklahoma State to finish out their season. It's going to be a tough pill to swallow for Sooner fans but at least they'll get a long awaited rematch with the Broncos in Glendale.
-Not much needs to be said here. This is by far the best mid major in CFB and the Fiesta will love this match.

BCS National Championship Game
January 9, 2012- New Orleans, Louisiana
(13-0) Alabama vs Oklahoma State (12-0)

-I am projecting Alabama will run the table and finish the regular season 12-0 for the 3rd time in 4 seasons. Absolutely remarkable job by the unflappable Nick Saban. The road to New Orleans won't be easy however. After the game of the year with LSU, the Tide finish SEC play off with road games in Starkville and Auburn.
-While it won't get the national attention that Alabama/LSU will, the Bedlam game will be equally as important this season. I'm projecting that 11-0 Oklahoma State will upend 11-0 Oklahoma to put themselves into their first BCS game in school history.



Others in the BCS picture:
Stanford (10-2)
Illinois (10-2)
Georgia Tech (10-2)